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Practical data‐driven flood forecasting based on dynamical systems theory 期刊论文
Water Resources Research, 2021
作者:  Shunya Okuno;  Koji Ikeuchi;  Kazuyuki Aihara
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2021/02/17
Enhancing streamflow forecast and extracting insights using long‐short term memory networks with data integration at continental scales 期刊论文
Water Resources Research, 2020
作者:  Dapeng Feng;  Kuai Fang;  Chaopeng Shen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/06
Empirical orthogonal function regression: Linking population biology to spatial varying environmental conditions using climate projections 期刊论文
Global Change Biology, 2020
作者:  James T. Thorson;  Wei Cheng;  Albert J. Hermann;  James N. Ianelli;  Michael A. Litzow;  Cecilia A. O'Leary;  Grant G. Thompson
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/06/01
Complexity-based approach for El Nino magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (1) : 177-183
作者:  Meng, Jun;  Fan, Jingfang;  Ludescher, Josef;  Agarwal, Ankit;  Chen, Xiaosong;  Bunde, Armin;  Kurths, Juergen;  Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
ENSO  system complexity  entropy  spring barrier  forecasting  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Sea-ice data improves climate prediction over the Antarctic Seas– Applicability to Northern Hemisphere climate prediction – 新闻
来源平台:Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:0/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/16
Remote subsurface ocean temperature as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2018, 115 (45) : 11460-11464
作者:  Scoccimarro, Enrico;  Bellucci, Alessio;  Storto, Andrea;  Gualdi, Silvio;  Masina, Simona;  Navarra, Antonio
收藏  |  浏览/下载:16/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
hurricanes  Atlantic Ocean  seasonal predictions  subsurface ocean  tropical cyclones  
Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Over Morocco 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2018, 54 (11) : 9118-9130
作者:  Tuel, A.;  Eltahir, E. A. B.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:0/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
precipitation  Morocco  seasonal forecast  northwestern Africa  
Using Sensor Data to Dynamically Map Large-Scale Models to Site-Scale Forecasts: A Case Study Using the National Water Model 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2018, 54 (8) : 5636-5653
作者:  Fries, Kevin J.;  Kerkez, Branko
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Transfer Function  Flood Forecasting  Data Driven Modeling  
Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2018, 115 (1) : 59-63
作者:  Osso, Albert;  Sutton, Rowan;  Shaffrey, Len;  Dong, Buwen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
climate variability  seasonal forecast  sea-air interactions  predictability