Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020WR028427 |
Practical data‐driven flood forecasting based on dynamical systems theory | |
Shunya Okuno; Koji Ikeuchi; Kazuyuki Aihara | |
2021-02-11 | |
发表期刊 | Water Resources Research |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Data‐driven flood forecasting methods are useful, especially for rivers that lack information required for building physical models. Although the former methods can forecast river stages using only past water levels and rainfall data, they cannot easily predict unprecedented water levels and require a large amount of data to build accurate models. We focus on phase‐space reconstruction approaches based on dynamical systems theory and develop a practical data‐driven forecasting method to overcome existing problems. The proposed method can predict unprecedented water levels owing to a proposed correction term, and provide forecasts using only a small number of water level increase events. We applied the proposed method to data from actual rivers and it achieved the best forecast performance among existing data‐driven methods, including a multi‐layer perceptron, and a conventional method based on phase‐space reconstruction. In addition, the proposed method forecasted the exceedance of the evacuation warning level 6h earlier for small and steep rivers. Given its performance and maintainability, the proposed method can be applied to many gauged rivers to facilitate early evacuation. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/313865 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shunya Okuno,Koji Ikeuchi,Kazuyuki Aihara. Practical data‐driven flood forecasting based on dynamical systems theory[J]. Water Resources Research,2021. |
APA | Shunya Okuno,Koji Ikeuchi,&Kazuyuki Aihara.(2021).Practical data‐driven flood forecasting based on dynamical systems theory.Water Resources Research. |
MLA | Shunya Okuno,et al."Practical data‐driven flood forecasting based on dynamical systems theory".Water Resources Research (2021). |
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