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Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Skilful Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts of the Dry Northern European Summer 2018 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Dunstone, Nick;  Smith, Doug;  Hardiman, Steven;  Eade, Rosie;  Gordon, Margaret;  Hermanson, Leon;  Kay, Gillian;  Scaife, Adam
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
seasonal prediction  European  rainfall  summer  North Atlantic  
A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Albers, John R.;  Newman, Matthew
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Linear inverse model  Predictability  Subseasonal  
On the Mechanisms of the Active 2018 Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Pacific 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Qian, Y.;  Morakami, H.;  Nakano, M.;  Hsu, P-C;  Delworth, T. L.;  Kapnick, S. B.;  Ramaswamy, V;  Mochizuki, T.;  Morioka, Y.;  Doi, T.;  Kataoka, T.;  Nasuno, T.;  Yoshida, K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
tropical cyclones  North Pacific  Pacific Meridional Mode  central Pacific El Nino  future change  extreme events  
How does ENSO diversity limit the skill of tropical Pacific precipitation forecasts in dynamical seasonal predictions? 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 5815-5831
作者:  Sohn, Soo-Jin;  Tam, Chi-Yung;  Kug, Jong-Seong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
ENSO diversity  ENSO prediction  SST forecast  Tropical Pacific precipitation forecast  Dynamical seasonal prediction  Multimodal ensemble  
The Orinoco Low-Level Jet: An Investigation of Its Characteristics and Evolution Using the WRF Model 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019
作者:  Jimenez-Sanchez, Giovanni;  Markowski, Paul M.;  Jewtoukoff, Valerian;  Young, George S.;  Stensrud, David J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Orinoco low-level jet characteristics and evolution  low-level jet  Dynamical downscaling  WRF  spatial and temporal variability  Colombia and Venezuela  
Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 4505-4520
作者:  MacLeod, David
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
East Africa  Seasonal prediction  Forecasting  Drought  Flood  Forecast-based action  
Skill of dynamical and GHACOF consensus seasonal forecasts of East African rainfall 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 4911-4935
作者:  Walker, Dean P.;  Birch, Cathryn E.;  Marsham, John H.;  Scaife, Adam A.;  Graham, Richard J.;  Segele, Zewdu T.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Seasonal climate forecasts  Consensus outlooks  East Africa  Precipitation  Probabilistic verification  
Annual Seminar probes progress in predictions up to seasons ahead 新闻
来源平台:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/09/19
Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part II: Hydroclimatic Predictability 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (18) : 6015-6033
作者:  Gerlitz, Lars;  Steirou, Eva;  Schneider, Christoph;  Moron, Vincent;  Vorogushyn, Sergiy;  Merz, Bruno
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Asia  Climate prediction  Seasonal forecasting  North Atlantic Oscillation  Southern Oscillation