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The influence of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on trace gas levels at the Earth's surface 期刊论文
NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2020, 13 (1) : 22-+
作者:  Ray, Eric A.;  Portmann, Robert W.;  Yu, Pengfei;  Daniel, John;  Montzka, Stephen A.;  Dutton, Geoffrey S.;  Hall, Brad D.;  Moore, Fred L.;  Rosenlof, Karen H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/16
News highlights of 2019 新闻
来源平台:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2020/01/16
Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 226-+
作者:  Blasius, Bernd;  Rudolf, Lars;  Weithoff, Guntram;  Gaedke, Ursula;  Fussmann, Gregor F.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey(1-4). However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods(5-8) and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors(9-19). Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.


  
A look ahead to ECMWF events in 2020 新闻
来源平台:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:3/0  |  提交时间:2020/01/16
What next for machine learning in weather forecasting? 新闻
来源平台:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:2/0  |  提交时间:2020/01/16
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Modelling and data communities meet at ECMWF to advance hydrology 新闻
来源平台:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:1/0  |  提交时间:2020/01/16
Highly structured slow solar wind emerging from an equatorial coronal hole 期刊论文
Nature, 2019, 576: 237-242
作者:  S. D. Bale;  S. T. Badman;  J. W. Bonnell;  T. A. Bowen;  D. Burgess;  A. W. Case;  C. A. Cattell;  B. D. G. Chandran;  C. C. Chaston;  C. H. K. Chen;  J. F. Drake;  T. Dudok de Wit;  J. P. Eastwood;  R. E. Ergun;  W. M. Farrell;  C. Fong;  K. Goetz;  M. Goldstein;  K. A. Goodrich;  P. R. Harvey;  T. S. Horbury;  G. G. Howes;  J. C. Kasper;  P. J. Kellogg;  J. A. Klimchuk;  K. E. Korreck;  V. V. Krasnoselskikh;  S. Krucker;  R. Laker;  D. E. Larson;  R. J. MacDowall;  M. Maksimovic;  D. M. Malaspina;  J. Martinez-Oliveros;  D. J. McComas;  N. Meyer-Vernet;  M. Moncuquet;  F. S. Mozer;  T. D. Phan;  M. Pulupa;  N. E. Raouafi;  C. Salem;  D. Stansby;  M. Stevens;  A. Szabo;  M. Velli;  T. Woolley;  J. R. Wygant
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16
Role of dynamic topography in sustaining the Nile River over 30 million years 期刊论文
NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2019, 12 (12) : 1012-+
作者:  Faccenna, Claudio;  Glisovic, Petar;  Forte, Alessandro;  Becker, Thorsten W.;  Garzanti, Eduardo;  Sembroni, Andrea;  Gvirtzman, Zohar
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/16
Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy 期刊论文
NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2019, 12 (12) : 964-+
作者:  Tokarska, Katarzyna B.;  Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich;  Rogelj, Joeri;  Stolpe, Martin B.;  Matthews, H. Damon;  Pfleiderer, Peter;  Gillett, Nathan P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/16