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The Orinoco Low-Level Jet: An Investigation of Its Mechanisms of Formation Using the WRF Model 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2020, 125 (13)
作者:  Jimenez-Sanchez, Giovanni;  Markowski, Paul M.;  Young, George S.;  Stensrud, David J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
Orinoco low-level jet  forcing mechanisms  dynamical downscaling  momentum balance analysis  LLJs near the equator may originate from processes other than the inertial oscillation  LLJs near the equator may originate from processes other than topographic thermal forcing  
Estimation of global coastal sea level extremes using neural networks 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (7)
作者:  Bruneau, Nicolas;  Polton, Jeff;  Williams, Joanne;  Holt, Jason
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
sea water anomaly  extremes  storm surges  GESLA database  machine learning  
Assimilating multi-satellite snow data in ungauged Eurasia improves the simulation accuracy of Asian monsoon seasonal anomalies 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (6)
作者:  Lin, Peirong;  Yang, Zong-Liang;  Wei, Jiangfeng;  Dickinson, Robert E.;  Zhang, Yongfei;  Zhao, Long
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
Asian monsoon  dynamical seasonal forecast  multi-satellite snow data assimilation  GRACE  MODIS  
Enhanced Northern Hemisphere Correlation Skill of Subseasonal Predictions in the Strong Negative Phase of the Arctic Oscillation 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2020, 125 (10)
作者:  Minami, Atsushi;  Takaya, Yuhei
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
AO  subseasonal predictability  eddy-zonal flow interaction  
Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (5)
作者:  Acosta Navarro, J. C.;  Ortega, P.;  Batte, L.;  Smith, D.;  Bretonniere, P. A.;  Guemas, V;  Massonnet, F.;  Sicardi, V;  Torralba, V;  Tourigny, E.;  Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Impact of Rapid-Scan-Based Dynamical Information From GOES-16 on HWRF Hurricane Forecasts 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2020, 125 (3)
作者:  Li, Jinlong;  Li, Jun;  Velden, Christopher;  Wang, Pei;  Schmit, Timothy J.;  Sippel, Jason
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Complexity-based approach for El Nino magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (1) : 177-183
作者:  Meng, Jun;  Fan, Jingfang;  Ludescher, Josef;  Agarwal, Ankit;  Chen, Xiaosong;  Bunde, Armin;  Kurths, Juergen;  Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
ENSO  system complexity  entropy  spring barrier  forecasting  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7461-7477
作者:  Villarini, Gabriele;  Luitel, Beda;  Vecchi, Gabriel A.;  Ghosh, Joyee
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
ENSO influence on the dynamical seasonal prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7479-7495
作者:  Kang, Daehyun;  Lee, Myong-In
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Seasonal prediction  East Asian Winter Monsoon  ENSO  Teleconnection  Decadal variability