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Comparative assessment of environmental variables and machine learning algorithms for maize yield prediction in the US Midwest 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (6)
作者:  Kang, Yanghui;  Ozdogan, Mutlu;  Zhu, Xiaojin;  Ye, Zhiwei;  Hain, Christopher;  Anderson, Martha
收藏  |  浏览/下载:16/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
crop yields  climate impact  machine learning  deep learning  data-driven  
Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7808) : 294-+
作者:  Ibrahim, Nizar;  Maganuco, Simone;  Dal Sasso, Cristiano;  Fabbri, Matteo;  Auditore, Marco;  Bindellini, Gabriele;  Martill, David M.;  Zouhri, Samir;  Mattarelli, Diego A.;  Unwin, David M.;  Wiemann, Jasmina;  Bonadonna, Davide;  Amane, Ayoub;  Jakubczak, Juliana;  Joger, Ulrich;  Lauder, George V.;  Pierce, Stephanie E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25

Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover(1-3). These changes in snow cover affect Earth'  s climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere(4-6). In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking(7-9). Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980-2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 +/- 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40 degrees N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433-3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846-3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)-a reduction in uncertainty from 33% to 7.4%. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia  both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth'  s energy, water and carbon budgets.


Applying a bias correction to a state-of-the-art dataset covering non-alpine regions of the Northern Hemisphere and to three other datasets yields a more constrained quantification of snow mass in March from 1980 to 2018.


  
Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Fernandez, Diego Carlos;  Komal, Ruchi;  Langel, Jennifer;  Ma, Jun;  Duy, Phan Q.;  Penzo, Mario A.;  Zhao, Haiqing;  Hattar, Samer
收藏  |  浏览/下载:70/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Sudden, large-scale and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks of disease into widespread epidemics(1-4). Rapid and accurate tracking of aggregate population flows may therefore be epidemiologically informative. Here we use 11,478,484 counts of mobile phone data from individuals leaving or transiting through the prefecture of Wuhan between 1 January and 24 January 2020 as they moved to 296 prefectures throughout mainland China. First, we document the efficacy of quarantine in ceasing movement. Second, we show that the distribution of population outflow from Wuhan accurately predicts the relative frequency and geographical distribution of infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until 19 February 2020, across mainland China. Third, we develop a spatio-temporal '  risk source'  model that leverages population flow data (which operationalize the risk that emanates from epidemic epicentres) not only to forecast the distribution of confirmed cases, but also to identify regions that have a high risk of transmission at an early stage. Fourth, we use this risk source model to statistically derive the geographical spread of COVID-19 and the growth pattern based on the population outflow from Wuhan  the model yields a benchmark trend and an index for assessing the risk of community transmission of COVID-19 over time for different locations. This approach can be used by policy-makers in any nation with available data to make rapid and accurate risk assessments and to plan the allocation of limited resources ahead of ongoing outbreaks.


Modelling of population flows in China enables the forecasting of the distribution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the identification of areas at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at an early stage.


  
A cold, massive, rotating disk galaxy 1.5 billion years after the Big Bang 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7808) : 269-+
作者:  Poplawski, Gunnar H. D.;  Kawaguchi, Riki;  Van Niekerk, Erna;  Lu, Paul;  Mehta, Neil;  Canete, Philip;  Lie, Richard;  Dragatsis, Ioannis;  Meves, Jessica M.;  Zheng, Binhai;  Coppola, Giovanni;  Tuszynski, Mark H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:61/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Massive disk galaxies like the Milky Way are expected to form at late times in traditional models of galaxy formation(1,2), but recent numerical simulations suggest that such galaxies could form as early as a billion years after the Big Bang through the accretion of cold material and mergers(3,4). Observationally, it has been difficult to identify disk galaxies in emission at high redshift(5,6) in order to discern between competing models of galaxy formation. Here we report imaging, with a resolution of about 1.3 kiloparsecs, of the 158-micrometre emission line from singly ionized carbon, the far-infrared dust continuum and the near-ultraviolet continuum emission from a galaxy at a redshift of 4.2603, identified by detecting its absorption of quasar light. These observations show that the emission arises from gas inside a cold, dusty, rotating disk with a rotational velocity of about 272 kilometres per second. The detection of emission from carbon monoxide in the galaxy yields a molecular mass that is consistent with the estimate from the ionized carbon emission of about 72 billion solar masses. The existence of such a massive, rotationally supported, cold disk galaxy when the Universe was only 1.5 billion years old favours formation through either cold-mode accretion or mergers, although its large rotational velocity and large content of cold gas remain challenging to reproduce with most numerical simulations(7,8).


A massive rotating disk galaxy was formed a mere 1.5 billion years after the Big Bang, a surprisingly short time after the origin of the Universe.


  
Spin squeezing of 10(11) atoms by prediction and retrodiction measurements 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7807) : 159-+
作者:  Lan, Jun;  Ge, Jiwan;  Yu, Jinfang;  Shan, Sisi;  Zhou, Huan;  Fan, Shilong;  Zhang, Qi;  Shi, Xuanling;  Wang, Qisheng;  Zhang, Linqi;  Wang, Xinquan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

The measurement sensitivity of quantum probes using N uncorrelated particles is restricted by the standard quantum limit(1), which is proportional to 1/root N. This limit, however, can be overcome by exploiting quantum entangled states, such as spin-squeezed states(2). Here we report the measurement-based generation of a quantum state that exceeds the standard quantum limit for probing the collective spin of 10(11) rubidium atoms contained in a macroscopic vapour cell. The state is prepared and verified by sequences of stroboscopic quantum non-demolition (QND) measurements. We then apply the theory of past quantum states(3,4) to obtain spin state information from the outcomes of both earlier and later QND measurements. Rather than establishing a physically squeezed state in the laboratory, the past quantum state represents the combined system information from these prediction and retrodiction measurements. This information is equivalent to a noise reduction of 5.6 decibels and a metrologically relevant squeezing of 4.5 decibels relative to the coherent spin state. The past quantum state yields tighter constraints on the spin component than those obtained by conventional QND measurements. Our measurement uses 1,000 times more atoms than previous squeezing experiments(5-10), with a corresponding angular variance of the squeezed collective spin of 4.6 x 10(-13) radians squared. Although this work is rooted in the foundational theory of quantum measurements, it may find practical use in quantum metrology and quantum parameter estimation, as we demonstrate by applying our protocol to quantum enhanced atomic magnetometry.


  
Extended US travel ban harms global science 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7797) : 9-9
作者:  Ajami, Nadim J.;  Wargo, Jennifer A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

From preparing for pandemics to boosting crop yields, Nigerian scientists who work and train abroad are making the world safer. Now that'  s under threat.


From preparing for pandemics to boosting crop yields, Nigerian scientists who work and train abroad are making the world safer. Now that'  s under threat.


  
The impact of environmental changes on the yield and nutritional quality of fruits, nuts and seeds: a systematic review 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (2)
作者:  Alae-Carew, Carmelia;  Nicoleau, Salina;  Bird, Frances A.;  Hawkins, Poppy;  Tuomisto, Hanna L.;  Haines, Andy;  Dangour, Alan D.;  Scheelbeek, Pauline F. D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
fruits  nuts  seeds  yields  environmental change  environmental exposure  
Gram-scale bottom-up flash graphene synthesis 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7792) : 647-651
作者:  Long, Haizhen;  Zhang, Liwei;  Lv, Mengjie;  Wen, Zengqi;  Zhang, Wenhao;  Chen, Xiulan;  Zhang, Peitao;  Li, Tongqing;  Chang, Luyuan;  Jin, Caiwei;  Wu, Guozhao;  Wang, Xi;  Yang, Fuquan;  Pei, Jianfeng;  Chen, Ping;  Margueron, Raphael;  Deng, Haiteng;  Zhu, Mingzhao;  Li, Guohong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Most bulk-scale graphene is produced by a top-down approach, exfoliating graphite, which often requires large amounts of solvent with high-energy mixing, shearing, sonication or electrochemical treatment(1-3). Although chemical oxidation of graphite to graphene oxide promotes exfoliation, it requires harsh oxidants and leaves the graphene with a defective perforated structure after the subsequent reduction step(3,4). Bottom-up synthesis of high-quality graphene is often restricted to ultrasmall amounts if performed by chemical vapour deposition or advanced synthetic organic methods, or it provides a defect-ridden structure if carried out in bulk solution(4-6). Here we show that flash Joule heating of inexpensive carbon sources-such as coal, petroleum coke, biochar, carbon black, discarded food, rubber tyres and mixed plastic waste-can afford gram-scale quantities of graphene in less than one second. The product, named flash graphene (FG) after the process used to produce it, shows turbostratic arrangement (that is, little order) between the stacked graphene layers. FG synthesis uses no furnace and no solvents or reactive gases. Yields depend on the carbon content of the source  when using a high-carbon source, such as carbon black, anthracitic coal or calcined coke, yields can range from 80 to 90 per cent with carbon purity greater than 99 per cent. No purification steps are necessary. Raman spectroscopy analysis shows a low-intensity or absent D band for FG, indicating that FG has among the lowest defect concentrations reported so far for graphene, and confirms the turbostratic stacking of FG, which is clearly distinguished from turbostratic graphite. The disordered orientation of FG layers facilitates its rapid exfoliation upon mixing during composite formation. The electric energy cost for FG synthesis is only about 7.2 kilojoules per gram, which could render FG suitable for use in bulk composites of plastic, metals, plywood, concrete and other building materials.


Flash Joule heating of inexpensive carbon sources is used to produce gram-scale quantities of high-quality graphene in under a second, without the need for a furnace, solvents or reactive gases.


  
Climate change projections for olive yields in the Mediterranean Basin 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Fraga, Helder;  Pinto, Joaquim G.;  Viola, Francesco;  Santos, Joao A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
climate change  Euro-Cordex  Europe  olive yields  representative concentration pathways  
Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (7)
作者:  Qian, Budong;  Zhang, Xuebin;  Smith, Ward;  Grant, Brian;  Jing, Qi;  Cannon, Alex J.;  Neilsen, Denise;  McConkey, Brian;  Li, Guilong;  Bonsal, Barrie;  Wan, Hui;  Xue, Li;  Zhao, Jun
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
agriculture  Canada  climate change  climate targets  crop yields  crop models