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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab17fb |
Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C | |
Qian, Budong1; Zhang, Xuebin2; Smith, Ward1; Grant, Brian1; Jing, Qi1; Cannon, Alex J.2; Neilsen, Denise1; McConkey, Brian1; Li, Guilong2; Bonsal, Barrie2; Wan, Hui2; Xue, Li3; Zhao, Jun3 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Science-based assessments of climate change impacts on cropping systems under different levels of global warming are essential for informing stakeholders which global climate targets and potential adaptation strategies may be effective. A comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts on Canada's crop production under different levels of global warming is currently lacking. The DayCent, DNDC and DSSAT models were employed to estimate changes in crop yield and production for three prominent crops including spring wheat, canola and maize in current agricultural regions of Canada. Four warming scenarios with global mean temperature changes of 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C above the pre-industrial level were investigated. Climate scenarios from 20 Global Climate Models, included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and downscaled with a multivariate quantile mapping bias correction method, were used to drive the crop simulation models. Simulated yield changes demonstrate a potentially positive impact on spring wheat and canola yields at all four temperature levels, particularly when shifting planting date is considered in the simulations. There was less consensus for the currently utilized short-season maize cultivars, as yields were only projected to increase byDNDCcompared to a slight decrease by DayCent and a slight increase up to 2.5 degrees C followed by a decrease at 3.0 degrees C by DSSAT. These findings indicate that climate at the global warming levels up to 3.0 degrees C above the pre-industrial level could be beneficial for crop production of small grains in Canada. However, these benefits declined after warming reached 2.5 degrees C. |
英文关键词 | agriculture Canada climate change climate targets crop yields crop models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000476946400003 |
WOS关键词 | CROP PRODUCTION ; MODEL ; AGRICULTURE ; ADAPTATION ; EMISSIONS ; PRODUCTIVITY ; MANAGEMENT ; NITROGEN ; DAYCENT ; SYSTEMS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184571 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Sci & Technol Branch, Ottawa, ON, Canada; 2.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Sci & Technol Branch, Ottawa, ON, Canada; 3.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Strateg Policy Branch, Ottawa, ON, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Qian, Budong,Zhang, Xuebin,Smith, Ward,et al. Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(7). |
APA | Qian, Budong.,Zhang, Xuebin.,Smith, Ward.,Grant, Brian.,Jing, Qi.,...&Zhao, Jun.(2019).Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(7). |
MLA | Qian, Budong,et al."Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.7(2019). |
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