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Predicting spatial and temporal variability in crop yields: an inter-comparison of machine learning, regression and process-based models 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (4)
作者:  Leng, Guoyong;  Hall, Jim W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
climate change  crop yield  machine learning  statistical model  crop model  
Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7797) : 80-+
作者:  Wannes Hubau;  Simon L. Lewis;  Oliver L. Phillips;  Kofi Affum-Baffoe;  Hans Beeckman;  Aida Cuní;  -Sanchez;  Armandu K. Daniels;  Corneille E. N. Ewango;  Sophie Fauset;  Jacques M. Mukinzi;  Douglas Sheil;  Bonaventure Sonké;  Martin J. P. Sullivan;  Terry C. H. Sunderland;  Hermann Taedoumg;  Sean C. Thomas;  Lee J. T. White;  Katharine A. Abernethy;  Stephen Adu-Bredu;  Christian A. Amani;  Timothy R. Baker;  Lindsay F. Banin;  Fidè;  le Baya;  Serge K. Begne;  Amy C. Bennett;  Fabrice Benedet;  Robert Bitariho;  Yannick E. Bocko;  Pascal Boeckx;  Patrick Boundja;  Roel J. W. Brienen;  Terry Brncic;  Eric Chezeaux;  George B. Chuyong;  Connie J. Clark;  Murray Collins;  James A. Comiskey;  David A. Coomes;  Greta C. Dargie;  Thales de Haulleville;  Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem;  Jean-Louis Doucet;  Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert;  Ted R. Feldpausch;  Alusine Fofanah;  Ernest G. Foli;  Martin Gilpin;  Emanuel Gloor;  Christelle Gonmadje;  Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury;  Jefferson S. Hall;  Alan C. Hamilton;  David J. Harris;  Terese B. Hart;  Mireille B. N. Hockemba;  Annette Hladik;  Suspense A. Ifo;  Kathryn J. Jeffery;  Tommaso Jucker;  Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu;  Elizabeth Kearsley;  David Kenfack;  Alexander Koch;  Miguel E. Leal;  Aurora Levesley;  Jeremy A. Lindsell;  Janvier Lisingo;  Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez;  Jon C. Lovett;  Jean-Remy Makana;  Yadvinder Malhi;  Andrew R. Marshall;  Jim Martin;  Emanuel H. Martin;  Faustin M. Mbayu;  Vincent P. Medjibe;  Vianet Mihindou;  Edward T. A. Mitchard;  Sam Moore;  Pantaleo K. T. Munishi;  Natacha Nssi Bengone;  Lucas Ojo;  Fidè;  le Evouna Ondo;  Kelvin S.-H. Peh;  Georgia C. Pickavance;  Axel Dalberg Poulsen;  John R. Poulsen;  Lan Qie;  Jan Reitsma;  Francesco Rovero;  Michael D. Swaine;  Joey Talbot;  James Taplin;  David M. Taylor;  Duncan W. Thomas;  Benjamin Toirambe;  John Tshibamba Mukendi;  Darlington Tuagben;  Peter M. Umunay;  Geertje M. F. van der Heijden;  Hans Verbeeck;  Jason Vleminckx;  Simon Willcock;  Hannsjö;  rg Wö;  ll;  John T. Woods;  Lise Zemagho
收藏  |  浏览/下载:23/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest '  carbon sink'  will continue for decades(4,5). Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth'  s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth'  s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth'  s climate.


  
Central Taiwan's hydroclimate in response to land use/cover change 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (3)
作者:  Chen, Chia-Jeng;  Chen, Chu-Chun;  Lo, Min-Hui;  Juang, Jehn-Yih;  Chang, Che-Min
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
land-atmosphere interactions  land-surface model  statistical analysis  climate change  
Projection of hydroclimate extreme indices over the Indochina region under climate change using a large single-model ensemble 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Hanittinan, Patinya;  Tachikawa, Yasuto;  Ram-Indra, Teerawat
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
d4PDF  extreme indices  precipitation  runoff elasticities  single-model ensemble  statistical significance  total runoff  
Advantage of NEX-GDDP over CMIP5 and CORDEX Data: Indian Summer Monsoon 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 228: 152-160
作者:  Jain, Shipra;  Salunke, Popat;  Mishra, Saroj K.;  Sahany, Sandeep;  Choudhary, Naveen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Regional climate modeling  Indian summer monsoon  Statistical downscaling  General circulation models  Multi-model mean  
Nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis integrating climate variability and change with application to the Middle East 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 5329-5347
作者:  Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.;  Charron, Christian;  Kumar, Kondapalli Niranjan;  Phanikumar, Devulapalli Venkata;  Molini, Annalisa;  Basha, Ghouse
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Winter warm spell  Nonstationary model  Frequency analysis  Climate index  Climate change  Natural climate variability  Statistical distribution  Middle East  
Short communication comments on 'DISO: A rethink of Taylor diagram' 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Xu, Zhongfeng;  Han, Ying
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
centred statistics  climate model evaluation  model performance metrics  statistical methods  Taylor diagram  uncentred statistics  
Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 227: 89-100
作者:  Wahiduzzaman, Md;  Yeasmin, Alea
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Statistical forecasting  Tropical cyclones  Poisson Regression  Generalised Additive Model  North Indian Ocean  
A MCDM-based framework for selection of general circulation models and projection of spatio-temporal rainfall changes: A case study of Nigeria 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 225: 1-16
作者:  Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi;  Shahid, Shamsuddin;  Chung, Eun-Sung;  Alias, Noraliani;  Scherer, Laura
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Feature selection method  General circulation model  Information entropy  Statistical downscaling  Random forest  
A new two-stage multivariate quantile mapping method for bias correcting climate model outputs 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 3603-3623
作者:  Guo, Qiang;  Chen, Jie;  Zhang, Xunchang;  Shen, Mingxi;  Chen, Hua;  Guo, Shenglian
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Bias correction  Inter-variable correlation  Statistical downscaling  Climate change  Global climate model