Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.034

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.034
	Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries
	Wahiduzzaman, Md 1; Yeasmin, Alea 2,3
	2019-10-01
发表期刊	ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN	0169-8095
EISSN	1873-2895
出版年	2019
卷号	227 页码:89-100
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Australia; Bangladesh
英文摘要	This paper investigates the forecast potential of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall probabilities over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries using ocean-climate predictor variables in a new statistical seasonal forecast model. A Poisson regression model was used to predict the landfall probabilities for a period of 35 years of TC observations (1979-2013) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the predictor variables include sea surface temperature, Southern Oscillation Index and ocean heat content. Poisson regression was found skilful in hindcasting of tropical cyclone landfall frequency for the NIO region with a correlation coefficient in the forecasted hindcast time series of 0.65 and 31% improvement above climatology. In the present study, genesis was modelled by kernel density estimation, tracks were fitted using a generalised additive model (GAM) approach with a Euler integration step, and landfall location was estimated using a country mask. This GAM model that is previously demonstrated very skilful to simulate TC landfall across the NIO rim countries by Wahiduzzaman et al. (2017, 2019) deems skilful for this study.
英文关键词	Statistical forecasting Tropical cyclones Poisson Regression Generalised Additive Model North Indian Ocean
领域	地球科学
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000472688500008
WOS关键词	HURRICANE RISK ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; BAY ; TRACKS ; ENSO ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; SIMULATIONS ; OSCILLATION
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187189
专题	地球科学
作者单位	1.Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia; 2.RMIT Univ, SPACE Res Ctr, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 3.Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Sci & Technol U, Gopalganj, Bangladesh
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wahiduzzaman, Md,Yeasmin, Alea. Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2019,227:89-100.
APA	Wahiduzzaman, Md,&Yeasmin, Alea.(2019).Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,227,89-100.
MLA	Wahiduzzaman, Md,et al."Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 227(2019):89-100.