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The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Land use for animal production in global change studies: Defining and characterizing a framework 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2017, 23 (11)
作者:  Phelps, Leanne N.;  Kaplan, Jed O.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：10/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
animal production  browsing  global change studies  grazing  land cover  land use  livestock  modeling  pasture  rangeland  
2014 Global Forecast 科技报告
来源：Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 出版年： 2013
作者:  Craig Cohen;  Kathleen H. Hicks;  Josiane Gabel
收藏  |  浏览/下载：5/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
2013 Global Security Forum  Africa Program  Africa’s Changing Economic Landscape  Americas Program  Analysis  Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy  Burke Chair in Strategy  China Reality Check  Climate Change and Environmental Impacts  Cybersecurity  Cybersecurity and Technology  Defense Strategy and Capabilities  Defense and National Security Group  Defense and Security  Economics  Energy and National Security Program  Energy and Geopolitics  Energy and Sustainability  Europe Program  Europe in the World  European Defense and Security  European Politics and Economics  Family Planning  Maternal and Child Health  and Immunizations  Freeman Chair in China Studies  Global Economic Governance  Global Food Security Project  Global Health  Global Health Policy Center  Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies  Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program  Human Development  Japan Chair  Kissinger Chair  Korea Chair  Markets  Trends  and Outlooks  Middle East Program  Middle East Program Publications  Pacific Forum CSIS  Program on Crisis  Conflict  and Cooperation (C3)  Project on Nuclear Issues  Project on Prosperity and Development  Publications  Russia and Eurasia Program  Scholl Chair in International Business  Security and Conflict  Simon Chair in Political Economy  Southeast Asia Program  Strategic Technologies Program  Trade and International Business  Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies  
2011 Global Forecast 科技报告
来源：Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 出版年： 2011
作者:  Craig Cohen;  Josiane Gabel
收藏  |  浏览/下载：4/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
2011 Global Security Forum  Africa Program  Africa’s Changing Economic Landscape  Americas Program  Analysis  Archived Project and Reports  Arctic  Asia Division  Central Asia  China Reality Check  Climate Change and Environmental Impacts  Counterterrorism and International Threats  Cybersecurity and Technology  DHS and the Homeland Security Enterprise  Defense Strategy and Capabilities  Defense and Security  Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group  Economics  Energy and National Security Program  Energy and Geopolitics  Energy and Sustainability  Europe Program  Evolving Partnership between DoD & Industry  Family Planning  Maternal and Child Health  and Immunizations  Freeman Chair in China Studies  Geopolitics and International Security  Global Aging Initiative  Global Food Security Project  Global Health  Global Health Policy Center  Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program  Human Development  Human Rights Initiative  Human Rights and Counterterrorism  Impact of Budget Constraints  Improving Acquisition  International Development  International Security Program  Japan Chair  Kissinger Chair  Korea Chair  Leveraging Innovation  Markets  Trends  and Outlooks  Middle East Program  Middle East Program Publications  New Defense Approaches Project  New European Democracies Project  Program on Crisis  Conflict  and Cooperation (C3)  Project on Prosperity and Development  Proliferation Prevention Program  Publications  Regional Studies  Russia and Eurasia Program  Scholl Chair in International Business  Security and Conflict  Southeast Asia Program  Strategic Technologies Program  Trade and International Business  Transatlantic Relations  Transatlantic Security  Transnational Threats Project  Turkey Project  U.S. Development Policy  U.S. Policy towards Africa  Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies  
The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate 科技报告
来源：World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年： 2011
作者:  Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme
收藏  |  浏览/下载：11/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
Observations  Climate change  Air pollution  Global warming  Impact studies  Arctic