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到2030年全球气温上升1.5 ℃的可能性为50% 快报文章
气候变化快报,2023年第22期
作者:  廖琴
Microsoft Word(14Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:479/0  |  提交时间:2023/11/20
Carbon Budgets  Global Warming  
Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (7)
作者:  Jones, Chris D.;  Friedlingstein, Pierre
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
carbon budgets  carbon cycle feedbacks  constraints  research priorities  
Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7808) : 294-+
作者:  Ibrahim, Nizar;  Maganuco, Simone;  Dal Sasso, Cristiano;  Fabbri, Matteo;  Auditore, Marco;  Bindellini, Gabriele;  Martill, David M.;  Zouhri, Samir;  Mattarelli, Diego A.;  Unwin, David M.;  Wiemann, Jasmina;  Bonadonna, Davide;  Amane, Ayoub;  Jakubczak, Juliana;  Joger, Ulrich;  Lauder, George V.;  Pierce, Stephanie E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25

Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover(1-3). These changes in snow cover affect Earth'  s climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere(4-6). In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking(7-9). Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980-2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 +/- 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40 degrees N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433-3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846-3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)-a reduction in uncertainty from 33% to 7.4%. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia  both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth'  s energy, water and carbon budgets.


Applying a bias correction to a state-of-the-art dataset covering non-alpine regions of the Northern Hemisphere and to three other datasets yields a more constrained quantification of snow mass in March from 1980 to 2018.


  
Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (3)
作者:  Spafford, Lynsay;  MacDougall, Andrew H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions  carbon budgets  climate sensitivity  land-borne fraction of carbon  carbon-climate feedback  
Stable climate metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species-combining steps and pulses 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (2)
作者:  Collins, William J.;  Frame, David J.;  Fuglestvedt, Jan S.;  Shine, Keith P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
climate metrics  short-lived climate forcers  non-CO2 greenhouse gases  carbon budgets  climate targets  
Using Hydrological-Biogeochemical Linkages to Elucidate Carbon Dynamics in Coastal Marshes Subject to Relative Sea Level Rise 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (2)
作者:  Guimond, Julia A.;  Yu, Xuan;  Seyfferth, Angelia L.;  Michael, Holly A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
coastal wetlands  sea level rise  carbon budgets  groundwater-surface water interaction  groundwater modeling  estuaries  
Unraveling past impacts of climate change and land management on historic peatland development using proxy-based reconstruction, monitoring data and process modeling 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (9) : 4131-4142
作者:  Heinemeyer, Andreas;  Swindles, Graeme T.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
carbon budgets  carbon emissions  MILLENNIA model  peat accumulation  peatland management  peatlands  testate amoebae  water-table  
Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (5)
作者:  Collins, William J.;  Webber, Christopher P.;  Cox, Peter M.;  Huntingford, Chris;  Lowe, Jason;  Sitch, Stephen;  Chadburn, Sarah E.;  Comyn-Platt, Edward;  Harper, Anna B.;  Hayman, Garry;  Powell, Tom
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
carbon budgets  methane mitigation  non-CO2 greenhouse gases  climate targets  
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (5)
作者:  Richardson, Mark;  Cowtan, Kevin;  Millar, Richard J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
climate change  carbon budgets  global warming  Paris agreement  observational temperature records  
The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (3)
作者:  Tokarska, Katarzyna B.;  Gillett, Nathan P.;  Arora, Vivek K.;  Lee, Warren G.;  Zickfeld, Kirsten
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
carbon budgets  temperature targets  cumulative emissions  non-CO2 forcings  CMIP5