Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals | |
Richardson, Mark1; Cowtan, Kevin2; Millar, Richard J.3 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit 'global average temperature' rise to 'well below 2 degrees C' but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%-95% range 6%-21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 degrees C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035-2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 degrees C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO(2)). |
英文关键词 | climate change carbon budgets global warming Paris agreement observational temperature records |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430627500004 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE ; MODELS ; BUDGET ; AIR |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/31004 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, M-S 233-300,4800 Oak Grove Dr, Pasadena, CA 91101 USA; 2.Univ York, Dept Chem, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England; 3.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Ctr Environm, South Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Richardson, Mark,Cowtan, Kevin,Millar, Richard J.. Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(5). |
APA | Richardson, Mark,Cowtan, Kevin,&Millar, Richard J..(2018).Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(5). |
MLA | Richardson, Mark,et al."Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.5(2018). |
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