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全球温度对减排措施的响应存在延迟 快报文章
气候变化快报,2020年第15期
作者:  刘燕飞
Microsoft Word(16Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:323/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/05
Mitigation  Global warming  Anthropogenic emissions  
Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7815) : 242-+
作者:  David J. Beerling;  Euripides P. Kantzas;  Mark R. Lomas;  Peter Wade;  Rafael M. Eufrasio;  Phil Renforth;  Binoy Sarkar;  M. Grace Andrews;  Rachael H. James;  Christopher R. Pearce;  Jean-Francois Mercure;  Hector Pollitt;  Philip B. Holden;  Neil R. Edwards;  Madhu Khanna;  Lenny Koh;  Shaun Quegan;  Nick F. Pidgeon;  Ivan A. Janssens;  James Hansen;  Steven A. Banwart
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/14

Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic climate change(1). ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and reduced ocean acidification(2-4). Here we use an integrated performance modelling approach to make an initial techno-economic assessment for 2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary among nations in relation to business-as-usual energy policies and policies consistent with limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius(5). China, India, the USA and Brazil have great potential to help achieve average global CDR goals of 0.5 to 2gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year with extraction costs of approximately US$80-180 per tonne of CO2. These goals and costs are robust, regardless of future energy policies. Deployment within existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy. However, success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and incentive frameworks. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the potential for excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel slag) to obviate the need for new mining, as well as uncertainties in soil weathering rates and land-ocean transfer of weathered products.


  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:55/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
Global Warming Increases the Incidence of Haze Days in China 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (12) : 6180-6190
作者:  Xu, Bing;  Gu, Zhaoyan;  Wang, Luo;  Hao, Qingzhen;  Wang, Haizhi;  Chu, Guoqiang;  Lv, Yanwu;  Jiang, Dabang
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
haze  global warming  anthropogenic emissions  wind strength  lake sediments  
The unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwave in the New Zealand region 2017/18: drivers, mechanisms and impacts 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (4)
作者:  Salinger, M. James;  Renwick, James;  Behrens, Erik;  Mullan, A. Brett;  Diamond, Howard J.;  Sirguey, Pascal;  Smith, Robert O.;  Trought, Michael C. T.;  Alexander, Lisa, V;  Cullen, Nicolas J.;  Fitzharris, B. Blair;  Hepburn, Christopher D.;  Parker, Amber K.;  Sutton, Phil J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
anthropogenic global warming  atmospheric heatwave  Southern Alps glacier ice volume  wine grapes  marine ecosystems  marine heatwave  
Enhanced Decadal Warming of the Southeast Indian Ocean During the Recent Global Surface Warming Slowdown 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2017, 44 (19)
作者:  Li, Yuanlong;  Han, Weiqing;  Zhang, Lei
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
decadal warming  southeast Indian Ocean  global surface warming slowdown  Indonesian throughflow  anthropogenic warming  
Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2017, 23 (9)
作者:  Ettinger, Ailene;  Hillerislambers, Janneke
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Abies amabilis  anthropogenic global warming  biotic interactions  Mount Rainier  Pacific Northwest  range limits  Tsuga heterophylla  Tsuga mertensiana  
Assessing ExxonMobil's climate change communications (1977-2014) 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2017, 12 (8)
作者:  Supran, Geoffrey;  Oreskes, Naomi
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
anthropogenic global warming  climate change  ExxonMobil  disinformation  content analysis  climate communication  advertorial