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Major factors of global and regional monsoon rainfall changes: natural versus anthropogenic forcing 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (3)
作者:  Ha, Kyung-Ja;  Kim, Byeong-Hee;  Chung, Eui-Seok;  Chan, Johnny C. L.;  Chang, Chih-Pei
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
rainfall  precipitation  monsoon  external forcing  internal variability  time of emergence  
Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 226-+
作者:  Blasius, Bernd;  Rudolf, Lars;  Weithoff, Guntram;  Gaedke, Ursula;  Fussmann, Gregor F.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey(1-4). However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods(5-8) and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors(9-19). Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.


  
Projections of climate changes over mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during boreal spring: uncertainty due to internal variability 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 6309-6327
作者:  Chen, Shangfeng;  Wu, Renguang;  Chen, Wen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Boreal spring  Eurasia  Internal variability  External forcing  Uncertainty  
Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979-2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Gong, Hainan;  Wang, Lin;  Chen, Wen;  Wu, Renguang
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
East Asia  temperature trend  external forcing  internal variability  dynamical adjustment  quantitative analysis  
What drives the decadal variation of global land monsoon precipitation over the past 50 years? 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2018, 38 (13) : 4818-4829
作者:  Zhang, Yanfang;  Guo, Yan;  Dong, Wenjie;  Li, Chunxiang
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
CMIP5 models  decadal variation  external forcing  global land monsoon precipitation  internal variability  
The connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Indian Summer Monsoon since the Industrial Revolution is intrinsic to the climate system 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (9)
作者:  Luo, Feifei;  Li, Shuanglin;  Gao, Yongqi;  Svendsen, Lea;  Furevik, Tore;  Keenlyside, Noel
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation  Indian Summer Monsoon  inherent relationship  external forcing  climate model  
Dynamical diagnostics of the SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific: part I a linear coupled framework 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 50: 1841-1862
作者:  Chen, Ying-Ying;  Jin, Fei-Fei
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
SST annual cycle  Ocean-atmosphere interaction  Westward propagation  External forcing  
Dynamical diagnostics of the SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific: Part II analysis of CMIP5 simulations 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 49
作者:  Chen, Ying-Ying;  Jin, Fei-Fei
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
SST annual cycle  CMIP5  Westward propagation  External forcing  
Quantifying climate changes of the Common Era for Finland 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 49
作者:  Luoto, Tomi P.;  Nevalainen, Liisa
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Chironomidae  External forcing  Little Ice Age  Medieval Climate Anomaly  Paleoclimate  Paleolimnology  
Internal atmospheric noise characteristics in twentieth century coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 49
作者:  Colfescu, Ioana;  Schneider, Edwin K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Internal variability  Atmospheric weather noise  Coupled general circulation modes  Twentieth century external forcing  Coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations  Surface pressure variability  Coupled simulations  Stochastic atmospheric forcings