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The timing and effect of the earliest human arrivals in North America 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Lorena Becerra-Valdivia;  Thomas Higham
收藏  |  浏览/下载:27/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

The peopling of the Americas marks a major expansion of humans across the planet. However, questions regarding the timing and mechanisms of this dispersal remain, and the previously accepted model (termed '  Clovis-first'  )-suggesting that the first inhabitants of the Americas were linked with the Clovis tradition, a complex marked by distinctive fluted lithic points(1)-has been effectively refuted. Here we analyse chronometric data from 42 North American and Beringian archaeological sites using a Bayesian age modelling approach, and use the resulting chronological framework to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns of human dispersal. We then integrate these patterns with the available genetic and climatic evidence. The data obtained show that humans were probably present before, during and immediately after the Last Glacial Maximum (about 26.5-19 thousand years ago)(2,3)but that more widespread occupation began during a period of abrupt warming, Greenland Interstadial 1 (about 14.7-12.9 thousand years beforead 2000)(4). We also identify the near-synchronous commencement of Beringian, Clovis and Western Stemmed cultural traditions, and an overlap of each with the last dates for the appearance of 18 now-extinct faunal genera. Our analysis suggests that the widespread expansion of humans through North America was a key factor in the extinction of large terrestrial mammals.


A Bayesian age model suggests that human dispersal to the Americas probably began before the Last Glacial Maximum, overlapping with the last dates of appearance for several faunal genera.


  
Monumental architecture at Aguada Fenix and the rise of Maya civilization 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Bedding, Timothy R.;  Murphy, Simon J.;  Hey, Daniel R.;  Huber, Daniel;  Li, Tanda;  Smalley, Barry;  Stello, Dennis;  White, Timothy R.;  Ball, Warrick H.;  Chaplin, William J.;  Colman, Isabel L.;  Fuller, Jim;  Gaidos, Eric;  Harbeck, Daniel R.;  Hermes, J. J.;  Holdsworth, Daniel L.;  Li, Gang;  Li, Yaguang;  Mann, Andrew W.;  Reese, Daniel R.;  Sekaran, Sanjay;  Yu, Jie;  Antoci, Victoria;  Bergmann, Christoph;  Brown, Timothy M.;  Howard, Andrew W.;  Ireland, Michael J.;  Isaacson, Howard;  Jenkins, Jon M.;  Kjeldsen, Hans;  McCully, Curtis;  Rabus, Markus;  Rains, Adam D.;  Ricker, George R.;  Tinney, Christopher G.;  Vanderspek, Roland K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:30/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Archaeologists have traditionally thought that the development of Maya civilization was gradual, assuming that small villages began to emerge during the Middle Preclassic period (1000-350 bc  dates are calibrated throughout) along with the use of ceramics and the adoption of sedentism(1). Recent finds of early ceremonial complexes are beginning to challenge this model. Here we describe an airborne lidar survey and excavations of the previously unknown site of Aguada Fenix (Tabasco, Mexico) with an artificial plateau, which measures 1,400 m in length and 10 to 15 m in height and has 9 causeways radiating out from it. We dated this construction to between 1000 and 800 bc using a Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates. To our knowledge, this is the oldest monumental construction ever found in the Maya area and the largest in the entire pre-Hispanic history of the region. Although the site exhibits some similarities to the earlier Olmec centre of San Lorenzo, the community of Aguada Fenix probably did not have marked social inequality comparable to that of San Lorenzo. Aguada Fenix and other ceremonial complexes of the same period suggest the importance of communal work in the initial development of Maya civilization.


Lidar survey of the Maya lowlands uncovers the monumental site of Aguada Fenix, which dates to around 1000-800 bc and points to the role of communal construction in the development of Maya civilization.


  
A Bayesian Approach for Statistical-Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part II: Idealized Markov Chain Monte Carlo Experiments 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2020, 77 (3) : 1043-1064
作者:  Van Lier-Walqui, Marcus;  Morrison, Hugh;  Kumjian, Matthew R.;  Reimel, Karly J.;  Prat, Olivier P.;  Lunderman, Spencer;  Morzfeld, Matthias
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Atmosphere  Cloud microphysics  Radars  Radar observations  Bayesian methods  Cloud parameterizations  Model errors  
A Bayesian Approach for Statistical-Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2020, 77 (3) : 1019-1041
作者:  Morrison, Hugh;  van Lier-Walqui, Marcus;  Kumjian, Matthew R.;  Prat, Olivier P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Atmosphere  Cloud microphysics  Radars  Radar observations  Bayesian methods  Cloud parameterizations  Model errors  
Probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge extremes in Europe 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (4) : 1877-1883
作者:  Calafat, Francisco M.;  Marcos, Marta
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
sea level  extremes  storm surge  flooding  Bayesian hierarchical model  
Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2020, 23 (4) : 588-597
作者:  Paniw, Maria;  Childs, Dylan Z.;  Armitage, Kenneth B.;  Blumstein, Daniel T.;  Martin, Julien G. A.;  Oli, Madan K.;  Ozgul, Arpat
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Bayesian population model  carry-over effects  demography  factor-analytic models  seasonal structured population models  viability  
Changes in future rainfall extremes over Northeast Bangladesh: A Bayesian model averaging approach 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Abul Basher, Md;  Islam, A. K. M. Saiful;  Stiller-Reeve, Mathew A.;  Chu, Pao-Shin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Bayesian model averaging  climate change  multi-model ensemble mean  rainfall extremes  regional climate models  representative concentration pathways  
Improved probabilistic twenty-first century projections of sea surface temperature over East Asian marginal seas by considering uncertainty owing to model error and internal variability 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 6075-6087
作者:  Shin, Jongsoo;  Olson, Roman;  An, Soon-Il
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
East Asian marginal seas  Sea surface temperature  Multi-model ensemble  Bayesian model averaging  
Long-term forest dynamics in response to climate change in northern mixed forests in Japan: A 38-year individual-based approach 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2019, 449
作者:  Hiura, Tsutom;  Go, Sato;  Iijima, Hayato
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Bayesian state-space model  Competition  Deciduous broad-leaved trees  Evergreen conifers  Growth  Mortality  Snowfall  Wind disturbance  
Streamflow Reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin Using a Novel Bayesian Network Model 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2019, 55 (9) : 7694-7716
作者:  Ravindranath, Arun;  Devineni, Naresh;  Lall, Upmanu;  Cook, Edward R.;  Pederson, Greg;  Martin, Justin;  Woodhouse, Connie
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
spatial Markov model  paleo-reconstructions  streamflow reconstructions  Bayesian statistics  water management  stochastic hydrology