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The timing and effect of the earliest human arrivals in North America 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Lorena Becerra-Valdivia;  Thomas Higham
收藏  |  浏览/下载:85/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

The peopling of the Americas marks a major expansion of humans across the planet. However, questions regarding the timing and mechanisms of this dispersal remain, and the previously accepted model (termed '  Clovis-first'  )-suggesting that the first inhabitants of the Americas were linked with the Clovis tradition, a complex marked by distinctive fluted lithic points(1)-has been effectively refuted. Here we analyse chronometric data from 42 North American and Beringian archaeological sites using a Bayesian age modelling approach, and use the resulting chronological framework to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns of human dispersal. We then integrate these patterns with the available genetic and climatic evidence. The data obtained show that humans were probably present before, during and immediately after the Last Glacial Maximum (about 26.5-19 thousand years ago)(2,3)but that more widespread occupation began during a period of abrupt warming, Greenland Interstadial 1 (about 14.7-12.9 thousand years beforead 2000)(4). We also identify the near-synchronous commencement of Beringian, Clovis and Western Stemmed cultural traditions, and an overlap of each with the last dates for the appearance of 18 now-extinct faunal genera. Our analysis suggests that the widespread expansion of humans through North America was a key factor in the extinction of large terrestrial mammals.


A Bayesian age model suggests that human dispersal to the Americas probably began before the Last Glacial Maximum, overlapping with the last dates of appearance for several faunal genera.


  
Changes of crop failure risks in the United States associated with large-scale climate oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (6)
作者:  Schillerberg, Tayler A.;  Tian, Di
收藏  |  浏览/下载:41/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
climate oscillation  crop failure  Bayesian analysis  maize  winter wheat  the United States  
Monumental architecture at Aguada Fenix and the rise of Maya civilization 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Bedding, Timothy R.;  Murphy, Simon J.;  Hey, Daniel R.;  Huber, Daniel;  Li, Tanda;  Smalley, Barry;  Stello, Dennis;  White, Timothy R.;  Ball, Warrick H.;  Chaplin, William J.;  Colman, Isabel L.;  Fuller, Jim;  Gaidos, Eric;  Harbeck, Daniel R.;  Hermes, J. J.;  Holdsworth, Daniel L.;  Li, Gang;  Li, Yaguang;  Mann, Andrew W.;  Reese, Daniel R.;  Sekaran, Sanjay;  Yu, Jie;  Antoci, Victoria;  Bergmann, Christoph;  Brown, Timothy M.;  Howard, Andrew W.;  Ireland, Michael J.;  Isaacson, Howard;  Jenkins, Jon M.;  Kjeldsen, Hans;  McCully, Curtis;  Rabus, Markus;  Rains, Adam D.;  Ricker, George R.;  Tinney, Christopher G.;  Vanderspek, Roland K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:91/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Archaeologists have traditionally thought that the development of Maya civilization was gradual, assuming that small villages began to emerge during the Middle Preclassic period (1000-350 bc  dates are calibrated throughout) along with the use of ceramics and the adoption of sedentism(1). Recent finds of early ceremonial complexes are beginning to challenge this model. Here we describe an airborne lidar survey and excavations of the previously unknown site of Aguada Fenix (Tabasco, Mexico) with an artificial plateau, which measures 1,400 m in length and 10 to 15 m in height and has 9 causeways radiating out from it. We dated this construction to between 1000 and 800 bc using a Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates. To our knowledge, this is the oldest monumental construction ever found in the Maya area and the largest in the entire pre-Hispanic history of the region. Although the site exhibits some similarities to the earlier Olmec centre of San Lorenzo, the community of Aguada Fenix probably did not have marked social inequality comparable to that of San Lorenzo. Aguada Fenix and other ceremonial complexes of the same period suggest the importance of communal work in the initial development of Maya civilization.


Lidar survey of the Maya lowlands uncovers the monumental site of Aguada Fenix, which dates to around 1000-800 bc and points to the role of communal construction in the development of Maya civilization.


  
Quantifying spatiotemporal influences of climate index on seasonal extreme precipitation based on hierarchical Bayesian method 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Xiao, Mingzhong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:27/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Bayesian  climate index  extreme precipitation  frequency analysis  Poyang Lake basin  
Framework for quantifying population responses to disturbance reveals that coastal birds are highly resilient to hurricanes 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Field, Christopher R.;  Ruskin, Katharine J.;  Cohen, Jonathan B.;  Hodgman, Thomas P.;  Kovach, Adrienne, I;  Olsen, Brian J.;  Shriver, W. Gregory;  Elphick, Chris S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:43/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Bayesian population viability analysis  coastal birds  disturbance  hurricanes  resilience  stochastic population modelling  
How differing modes of non-genetic inheritance affect population viability in fluctuating environments 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2019, 22 (11) : 1767-1775
作者:  Proulx, Stephen R.;  Dey, Snigdhadip;  Guzella, Thiago;  Teotonio, Henrique
收藏  |  浏览/下载:27/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Autocorrelation  Bayesian analysis  C.elegans  carryover  epigenetics  experimental time series  fitness  fluctuating environments  growth rates  maternal effects  
Ecohydrologic Error Models for Improved Bayesian Inference in Remotely Sensed Catchments 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2019, 55 (6) : 4533-4549
作者:  Tang, Yating;  Marshall, Lucy;  Sharma, Ashish;  Ajami, Hoori;  Nott, David J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:20/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
ecohydrological modeling  Bayesian inference  observational error  uncertainty analysis  
Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (8) : 2423-2440
作者:  Evin, Guillaume;  Hingray, Benoit;  Blanchet, Juliette;  Eckert, Nicolas;  Morin, Samuel;  Verfaillie, Deborah
收藏  |  浏览/下载:27/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Bayesian methods  Error analysis  Risk assessment  Statistical techniques  Climate models  Climate variability  
Improved representation of ocean heat content in energy balance models 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019, 152: 503-516
作者:  Nadiga, Balasubramanya T.;  Urban, Nathan M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:26/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Surface warming  Ocean heat uptake  Ocean heat content  Energy balance model  Climate sensitivity  Bayesian analysis  Simple climate model  Radiative nonequilibrium  
Bayesian Regional Flood Frequency Analysis for Large Catchments 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2018, 54 (9) : 6929-6947
作者:  Thorarinsdottir, Thordis L.;  Hellton, Kristoffer H.;  Steinbakk, Gunnhildur H.;  Schlichting, Lena;  Engeland, Kolbjorn
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Bayesian  flood frequency analysis