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17%的欧洲人口面临水资源短缺的高风险 快报文章
资源环境快报,2022年第17期
作者:  吴秀平
Microsoft Word(16Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:679/1  |  提交时间:2022/09/16
2050  Europe  water scarcity  2050  
WRI报告指出气候行动必须加快步伐实现1.5 ℃目标 快报文章
气候变化快报,2020年第24期
作者:  廖琴
Microsoft Word(22Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:514/0  |  提交时间:2020/12/20
Progress on Climate Action  Emission Reduction Targets for 2030 and 2050  
Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7815) : 242-+
作者:  David J. Beerling;  Euripides P. Kantzas;  Mark R. Lomas;  Peter Wade;  Rafael M. Eufrasio;  Phil Renforth;  Binoy Sarkar;  M. Grace Andrews;  Rachael H. James;  Christopher R. Pearce;  Jean-Francois Mercure;  Hector Pollitt;  Philip B. Holden;  Neil R. Edwards;  Madhu Khanna;  Lenny Koh;  Shaun Quegan;  Nick F. Pidgeon;  Ivan A. Janssens;  James Hansen;  Steven A. Banwart
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/14

Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic climate change(1). ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and reduced ocean acidification(2-4). Here we use an integrated performance modelling approach to make an initial techno-economic assessment for 2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary among nations in relation to business-as-usual energy policies and policies consistent with limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius(5). China, India, the USA and Brazil have great potential to help achieve average global CDR goals of 0.5 to 2gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year with extraction costs of approximately US$80-180 per tonne of CO2. These goals and costs are robust, regardless of future energy policies. Deployment within existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy. However, success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and incentive frameworks. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the potential for excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel slag) to obviate the need for new mining, as well as uncertainties in soil weathering rates and land-ocean transfer of weathered products.


  
Abrupt increase in harvested forest area over Europe after 2015 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7814) : 72-+
作者:  Guido Ceccherini;  Gregory Duveiller;  Giacomo Grassi;  Guido Lemoine;  Valerio Avitabile;  Roberto Pilli;  Alessandro Cescatti
收藏  |  浏览/下载:19/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/06

Fine-scale satellite data are used to quantify forest harvest rates in 26 European countries, finding an increase in harvested forest area of 49% and an increase in biomass loss of 69% between 2011-2015 and 2016-2018.


Forests provide a series of ecosystem services that are crucial to our society. In the European Union (EU), forests account for approximately 38% of the total land surface(1). These forests are important carbon sinks, and their conservation efforts are vital for the EU'  s vision of achieving climate neutrality by 2050(2). However, the increasing demand for forest services and products, driven by the bioeconomy, poses challenges for sustainable forest management. Here we use fine-scale satellite data to observe an increase in the harvested forest area (49 per cent) and an increase in biomass loss (69 per cent) over Europe for the period of 2016-2018 relative to 2011-2015, with large losses occurring on the Iberian Peninsula and in the Nordic and Baltic countries. Satellite imagery further reveals that the average patch size of harvested area increased by 34 per cent across Europe, with potential effects on biodiversity, soil erosion and water regulation. The increase in the rate of forest harvest is the result of the recent expansion of wood markets, as suggested by econometric indicators on forestry, wood-based bioenergy and international trade. If such a high rate of forest harvest continues, the post-2020 EU vision of forest-based climate mitigation may be hampered, and the additional carbon losses from forests would require extra emission reductions in other sectors in order to reach climate neutrality by 2050(3).


  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:56/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
Rebuilding marine life 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7801) : 39-51
作者:  Carlos M. Duarte;  Susana Agusti;  Edward Barbier;  Gregory L. Britten;  Juan Carlos Castilla;  Jean-Pierre Gattuso;  Robinson W. Fulweiler;  Terry P. Hughes;  Nancy Knowlton;  Catherine E. Lovelock;  Heike K. Lotze;  Milica Predragovic;  Elvira Poloczanska;  Callum Roberts;  Boris Worm
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Sustainable Development Goal 14 of the United Nations aims to "conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development". Achieving this goal will require rebuilding the marine life-support systems that deliver the many benefits that society receives from a healthy ocean. Here we document the recovery of marine populations, habitats and ecosystems following past conservation interventions. Recovery rates across studies suggest that substantial recovery of the abundance, structure and function of marine life could be achieved by 2050, if major pressures-including climate change-are mitigated. Rebuilding marine life represents a doable Grand Challenge for humanity, an ethical obligation and a smart economic objective to achieve a sustainable future.


  
Sectoral energy efficiency improvements in Taiwan: Evaluations using a hybrid of top-down and bottom-up models 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2019, 132: 1241-1255
作者:  Wu, Yi-Hua;  Liu, Chia-Hao;  Hung, Ming-Lung;  Liu, Tzu-Yar;  Masui, Toshihiko
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Energy efficiency improvements  Integrated assessment models  Taiwan 2050 Calculator  Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/CGE  Taiwan  
Low-carbon energy scenarios 2050 in north-west European countries: Towards a more harmonised approach to achieve the EU targets 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2019, 130: 448-460
作者:  Mikova, Nadezhda;  Eichhammer, Wolfgang;  Pfluger, Benjamin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Energy policy  Low-carbon energy scenarios  The European targets 2050  North-west European countries  Technology trends  Foresight