资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way(1). Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe(2). However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.

Analysis of thousands of historical documents recording floods in Europe shows that flooding characteristics in recent decades are unlike those of previous centuries.

Immune evasion is a major obstacle for cancer treatment. Common mechanisms of evasion include impaired antigen presentation caused by mutations or loss of heterozygosity of the major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I), which has been implicated in resistance to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy(1-3). However, in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), which is resistant to most therapies including ICB4, mutations that cause loss of MHC-I are rarely found(5) despite the frequent downregulation of MHC-I expression(6-8). Here we show that, in PDAC, MHC-I molecules are selectively targeted for lysosomal degradation by an autophagy-dependent mechanism that involves the autophagy cargo receptor NBR1. PDAC cells display reduced expression of MHC-I at the cell surface and instead demonstrate predominant localization within autophagosomes and lysosomes. Notably, inhibition of autophagy restores surface levels of MHC-I and leads to improved antigen presentation, enhanced anti-tumour T cell responses and reduced tumour growth in syngeneic host mice. Accordingly, the anti-tumour effects of autophagy inhibition are reversed by depleting CD8(+) T cells or reducing surface expression of MHC-I. Inhibition of autophagy, either genetically or pharmacologically with chloroquine, synergizes with dual ICB therapy (anti-PD1 and anti-CTLA4 antibodies), and leads to an enhanced anti-tumour immune response. Our findings demonstrate a role for enhanced autophagy or lysosome function in immune evasion by selective targeting of MHC-I molecules for degradation, and provide a rationale for the combination of autophagy inhibition and dual ICB therapy as a therapeutic strategy against PDAC.

Inhibition of the autophagy-lysosome system upregulates surface expression of MHC class I proteins and enhances antigen presentation, and evokes a potent anti-tumour immune response that is mediated by CD8(+) T cells.