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Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 226-+
作者:  Blasius, Bernd;  Rudolf, Lars;  Weithoff, Guntram;  Gaedke, Ursula;  Fussmann, Gregor F.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey(1-4). However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods(5-8) and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors(9-19). Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.


  
The Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization Scheme on Climate Sensitivity in EC-Earth 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (23) : 12726-12740
作者:  Strommen, K.;  Watson, P. A. G.;  Palmer, T. N.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
The Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization Scheme on Climate Sensitivity in EC-Earth 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019
作者:  Strommen, K.;  Watson, P. A. G.;  Palmer, T. N.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Network Topology and Rainfall Controls on the Variability of Combined Sewer Overflows and Loads 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2019
作者:  McGrath, Gavan;  Kaeseberg, Thomas;  Silva, Julian David Reyes;  Jawitz, James W.;  Blumensaat, Frank;  Borchardt, Dietrich;  Mellander, Per-Erik;  Paik, Kyungrock;  Krebs, Peter;  Rao, P. Suresh C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/16
Combined Sewer  Rainfall  Topology  Stochastic  Ammonia  Flow recession  
Local Atmosphere-Ocean Predictability: Dynamical Origins, Lead Times, and Seasonality 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (21) : 7507-7519
作者:  Bach, Eviatar;  Motesharrei, Safa;  Kalnay, Eugenia;  Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Atmosphere-ocean interaction  Climate prediction  Statistical techniques  Time series  Short-range prediction  
Explaining Scales and Statistics of Tropical Precipitation Clusters with a Stochastic Model 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (10) : 3063-3087
作者:  Ahmed, Fiaz;  Neelin, J. David
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Atmosphere  Tropics  Deep convection  Mesoscale systems  Extreme events  Primitive equations model  
The impact of stochastic physics on the El Nino Southern Oscillation in the EC-Earth coupled model 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2843-2859
作者:  Yang, Chunxue;  Christensen, Hannah M.;  Corti, Susanna;  von Hardenberg, Jost;  Davini, Paolo
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
General seasonal phase-locking of variance and persistence: application to tropical pacific, north pacific and global ocean 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2825-2842
作者:  Jin, Yishuai;  Liu, Zhengyu;  Rong, Xinyao
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Phase locking  Variance  Persistence  Growth rate  Noise forcing  
Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using Seasonally Modulated ENSO Forcing Forecasts 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 46 (16) : 9980-9990
作者:  Zhao, Sen;  Jin, Fei-Fei;  Stuecker, Malte F.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:3/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910CE 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 1567-1580
作者:  Cook, Edward R.;  Kushnir, Yochanan;  Smerdon, Jason E.;  Williams, A. Park;  Anchukaitis, Kevin J.;  Wahl, Eugene R.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
North Atlantic Oscillation  Euro-Mediterranean tree rings  Millennium reconstruction  Stochastic forcing