中文版 | English

在结果中检索

GSTDTAP

浏览/检索结果: 共2条，第1-2条 帮助

限定条件                        
已选(0)清除 条数/页：   排序方式：
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载：56/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7790) : 364-+
作者:  Krebs, John R.;  Hassell, Michael
收藏  |  浏览/下载：49/0  |  提交时间：2020/04/16

Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands(1,2). They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change(3,4), yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here we present a global water tower index (WTI), which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each water tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socioeconomic changes. We conclude that the most important (highest WTI) water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountainous areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world'  s most important and vulnerable water towers.