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Early climate models successfully predicted global warming 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7793) : 45-46
作者:  Bertolucci, Sergio;  Mulargia, Francesco;  Giardini, Domenico
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

An evaluation of past climate-model forecasts.


Climate models published between 1970 and 2007 provided accurate forecasts of subsequently observed global surface warming. This finding shows the value of using global observations to vet climate models as the planet warms.


  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Increased high-latitude photosynthetic carbon gain offset by respiration carbon loss during an anomalous warm winter to spring transition 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Liu, Zhihua;  Kimball, John S.;  Parazoo, Nicholas C.;  Ballantyne, Ashley P.;  Wang, Wen J.;  Madani, Nima;  Pan, Caleb G.;  Watts, Jennifer D.;  Reichle, Rolf H.;  Sonnentag, Oliver;  Marsh, Philip;  Hurkuck, Miriam;  Helbig, Manuel;  Quinton, William L.;  Zona, Donatella;  Ueyama, Masahito;  Kobayashi, Hideki;  Euskirchen, Eugenie S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
ABoVE  boreal  carbon cycle  climate change  productivity  respiration  SMAP L4C  soil moisture  tundra  
Temperature change as a driver of spatial patterns and long-term trends in chironomid (Insecta: Diptera) diversity 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Engels, Stefan;  Medeiros, Andrew S.;  Axford, Yarrow;  Brooks, Stephen J.;  Heiri, Oliver;  Luoto, Tomi P.;  Nazarova, Larisa;  Porinchu, David F.;  Quinlan, Roberto;  Self, Angela E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Arctic  biodiversity  climate warming  freshwater ecosystems  insects  palaeoecology  Quaternary  
Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (11) : 3656-3668
作者:  Hansen, Brage Bremset;  Pedersen, Ashild Onvik;  Peeters, Bart;  Le Moullec, Mathilde;  Albon, Steve D.;  Herfindal, Ivar;  Saether, Bernt-Erik;  Grotan, Vidar;  Aanes, Ronny
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Arctic  caribou and reindeer  climate change  meta-population  population dynamics  spatial heterogeneity  spatial synchrony  ungulate  
The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (11) : 3906-3917
作者:  Goode, Andrew G.;  Brady, Damian C.;  Steneck, Robert S.;  Wahle, Richard A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
American lobster  biological thresholds  climate change  ocean warming  regional oceanography  thermal habitat  
Winter climate change and the poleward range expansion of a tropical invasive tree (Brazilian pepper-Schinus terebinthifolius) 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Osland, Michael J.;  Feher, Laura C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Brazilian pepper  climate change  freezing  invasive plant  range expansion  Schinus terebinthifolius  temperature threshold  tropicalization  
Characterising the biophysical, economic and social impacts of soil carbon sequestration as a greenhouse gas removal technology 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Sykes, Alasdair J.;  Macleod, Michael;  Eory, Vera;  Rees, Robert M.;  Payen, Florian;  Myrgiotis, Vasilis;  Williams, Mathew;  Sohi, Saran;  Hillier, Jon;  Moran, Dominic;  Manning, David A. C.;  Goglio, Pietro;  Seghetta, Michele;  Williams, Adrian;  Harris, Jim;  Dondini, Marta;  Walton, Jack;  House, Joanna;  Smith, Pete
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
4 per mille  agriculture  greenhouse gas removal  negative emissions  soil carbon sequestration  soil organic carbon  
Divergent carbon cycle response of forest and grass-dominated northern temperate ecosystems to record winter warming 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Sanders-DeMott, Rebecca;  Ouimette, Andrew P.;  Lepine, Lucie C.;  Fogarty, Sean Z.;  Burakowski, Elizabeth A.;  Contosta, Alexandra R.;  Ollinger, Scott V.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
eddy covariance  grassland  land use  phenology  snow  temperate forest  vernal transition  winter climate change  
Comment on "The global tree restoration potential" 期刊论文
SCIENCE, 2019, 366 (6463)
作者:  Veldman, Joseph W.;  Aleman, Julie C.;  Alvarado, Swanni T.;  Anderson, T. Michael;  Archibald, Sally;  Bond, William J.;  Boutton, Thomas W.;  Buchmann, Nina;  Buisson, Elise;  Canadell, Josep G.;  Dechoum, Michele de Sa;  Diaz-Toribio, Milton H.;  Durigan, Giselda;  Ewel, John J.;  Fernandes, G. Wilson;  Fidelis, Alessandra;  Fleischman, Forrest;  Good, Stephen P.;  Griffith, Daniel M.;  Hermann, Julia-Maria;  Hoffmann, William A.;  Le Stradic, Soizig;  Lehmann, Caroline E. R.;  Mahy, Gregory;  Nerlekar, Ashish N.;  Nippert, Jesse B.;  Noss, Reed F.;  Osborne, Colin P.;  Overbeck, Gerhard E.;  Parr, Catherine L.;  Pausas, Juli G.;  Pennington, R. Toby;  Perring, Michael P.;  Putz, Francis E.;  Ratnam, Jayashree;  Sankaran, Mahesh;  Schmidt, Isabel B.;  Schmitt, Christine B.;  Silveira, Fernando A. O.;  Staver, A. Carla;  Stevens, Nicola;  Still, Christopher J.;  Stromberg, Caroline A. E.;  Temperton, Vicky M.;  Varner, J. Morgan;  Zaloumis, Nicholas P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27