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Early climate models successfully predicted global warming 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7793) : 45-46
作者:  Bertolucci, Sergio;  Mulargia, Francesco;  Giardini, Domenico
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

An evaluation of past climate-model forecasts.


Climate models published between 1970 and 2007 provided accurate forecasts of subsequently observed global surface warming. This finding shows the value of using global observations to vet climate models as the planet warms.


  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Increased high-latitude photosynthetic carbon gain offset by respiration carbon loss during an anomalous warm winter to spring transition 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Liu, Zhihua;  Kimball, John S.;  Parazoo, Nicholas C.;  Ballantyne, Ashley P.;  Wang, Wen J.;  Madani, Nima;  Pan, Caleb G.;  Watts, Jennifer D.;  Reichle, Rolf H.;  Sonnentag, Oliver;  Marsh, Philip;  Hurkuck, Miriam;  Helbig, Manuel;  Quinton, William L.;  Zona, Donatella;  Ueyama, Masahito;  Kobayashi, Hideki;  Euskirchen, Eugenie S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
ABoVE  boreal  carbon cycle  climate change  productivity  respiration  SMAP L4C  soil moisture  tundra  
Temperature change as a driver of spatial patterns and long-term trends in chironomid (Insecta: Diptera) diversity 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Engels, Stefan;  Medeiros, Andrew S.;  Axford, Yarrow;  Brooks, Stephen J.;  Heiri, Oliver;  Luoto, Tomi P.;  Nazarova, Larisa;  Porinchu, David F.;  Quinlan, Roberto;  Self, Angela E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Arctic  biodiversity  climate warming  freshwater ecosystems  insects  palaeoecology  Quaternary  
Water-use efficiency in a semi-arid woodland with high rainfall variability 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Tarin, Tonantzin;  Nolan, Rachael H.;  Medlyn, Belinda E.;  Cleverly, James;  Eamus, Derek
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Acacia  Australia  carbon flux  eddy covariance  optimal stomatal behaviour  photosynthesis  stable isotopes  
Legacies of more frequent drought in ponderosa pine across the western United States 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (11) : 3803-3816
作者:  Peltier, Drew M. P.;  Ogle, Kiona
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
disturbance  hydraulic failure  ITRDB  memory  NSC  pervasive  plasticity  repeat  SAM  tree-ring  
Divergent carbon cycle response of forest and grass-dominated northern temperate ecosystems to record winter warming 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Sanders-DeMott, Rebecca;  Ouimette, Andrew P.;  Lepine, Lucie C.;  Fogarty, Sean Z.;  Burakowski, Elizabeth A.;  Contosta, Alexandra R.;  Ollinger, Scott V.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
eddy covariance  grassland  land use  phenology  snow  temperate forest  vernal transition  winter climate change  
Biogeographic variation in temperature sensitivity of decomposition in forest soils 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Li, Jinquan;  Nie, Ming;  Pendall, Elise;  Reich, Peter B.;  Pei, Junmin;  Noh, Nam Jin;  Zhu, Ting;  Li, Bo;  Fang, Changming
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
carbon cycle  carbon cycle modelling  carbon decomposition  climate change  forest  Q(10)  spatial heterogeneity  temperature sensitivity  
The acclimation of leaf photosynthesis of wheat and rice to seasonal temperature changes in T-FACE environments 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Cai, Chuang;  Li, Gang;  Di, Lijun;  Ding, Yunjie;  Fu, Lin;  Guo, Xuanhe;  Struik, Paul C.;  Pan, Genxing;  Li, Haozheng;  Chen, Weiping;  Luo, Weihong;  Yin, Xinyou
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
climate change  free-air CO2 enrichment  growth temperature  leaf nitrogen content  Oryza sativa L  photosynthesis model  stomatal conductance  Triticum aestivum L  
Multiple stressor effects on coral reef ecosystems 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Ellis, Joanne, I;  Jamil, Tahira;  Anlauf, Holger;  Coker, Darren J.;  Curdia, Joao;  Hewitt, Judi;  Jones, Burton H.;  Krokos, George;  Kuerten, Benjamin;  Hariprasad, Dasari;  Roth, Florian;  Carvalho, Susana;  Hoteit, Ibrahim
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
coral reefs  fishing pressure  macroalgae  nutrients  synergistic interactions  temperature stress