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Abrupt increase in harvested forest area over Europe after 2015 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7814) : 72-+
作者:  Guido Ceccherini;  Gregory Duveiller;  Giacomo Grassi;  Guido Lemoine;  Valerio Avitabile;  Roberto Pilli;  Alessandro Cescatti
收藏  |  浏览/下载:19/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/06

Fine-scale satellite data are used to quantify forest harvest rates in 26 European countries, finding an increase in harvested forest area of 49% and an increase in biomass loss of 69% between 2011-2015 and 2016-2018.


Forests provide a series of ecosystem services that are crucial to our society. In the European Union (EU), forests account for approximately 38% of the total land surface(1). These forests are important carbon sinks, and their conservation efforts are vital for the EU'  s vision of achieving climate neutrality by 2050(2). However, the increasing demand for forest services and products, driven by the bioeconomy, poses challenges for sustainable forest management. Here we use fine-scale satellite data to observe an increase in the harvested forest area (49 per cent) and an increase in biomass loss (69 per cent) over Europe for the period of 2016-2018 relative to 2011-2015, with large losses occurring on the Iberian Peninsula and in the Nordic and Baltic countries. Satellite imagery further reveals that the average patch size of harvested area increased by 34 per cent across Europe, with potential effects on biodiversity, soil erosion and water regulation. The increase in the rate of forest harvest is the result of the recent expansion of wood markets, as suggested by econometric indicators on forestry, wood-based bioenergy and international trade. If such a high rate of forest harvest continues, the post-2020 EU vision of forest-based climate mitigation may be hampered, and the additional carbon losses from forests would require extra emission reductions in other sectors in order to reach climate neutrality by 2050(3).


  
Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7808) : 294-+
作者:  Ibrahim, Nizar;  Maganuco, Simone;  Dal Sasso, Cristiano;  Fabbri, Matteo;  Auditore, Marco;  Bindellini, Gabriele;  Martill, David M.;  Zouhri, Samir;  Mattarelli, Diego A.;  Unwin, David M.;  Wiemann, Jasmina;  Bonadonna, Davide;  Amane, Ayoub;  Jakubczak, Juliana;  Joger, Ulrich;  Lauder, George V.;  Pierce, Stephanie E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25

Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover(1-3). These changes in snow cover affect Earth'  s climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere(4-6). In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking(7-9). Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980-2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 +/- 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40 degrees N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433-3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846-3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)-a reduction in uncertainty from 33% to 7.4%. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia  both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth'  s energy, water and carbon budgets.


Applying a bias correction to a state-of-the-art dataset covering non-alpine regions of the Northern Hemisphere and to three other datasets yields a more constrained quantification of snow mass in March from 1980 to 2018.


  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Multiple stressor effects on coral reef ecosystems 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Ellis, Joanne, I;  Jamil, Tahira;  Anlauf, Holger;  Coker, Darren J.;  Curdia, Joao;  Hewitt, Judi;  Jones, Burton H.;  Krokos, George;  Kuerten, Benjamin;  Hariprasad, Dasari;  Roth, Florian;  Carvalho, Susana;  Hoteit, Ibrahim
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
coral reefs  fishing pressure  macroalgae  nutrients  synergistic interactions  temperature stress  
Terrestrial gross primary production: Using NIRV to scale from site to globe 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (11) : 3731-3740
作者:  Badgley, Grayson;  Anderegg, Leander D. L.;  Berry, Joseph A.;  Field, Christopher B.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
carbon cycle  near-infrared reflectance  photosynthesis  remote sensing  terrestrial gross primary production  
High ecosystem stability of evergreen broadleaf forests under severe droughts 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (10) : 3494-3503
作者:  Huang, Kun;  Xia, Jianyang
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
droughts  ecosystem stability  Enhanced Vegetation Index  evergreen broadleaf forests  resilience  resistance  
Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model 期刊论文
SCIENCE, 2019, 365 (6450) : 284-+
作者:  Park, Jong-Yeon;  Stock, Charles A.;  Dunne, John P.;  Yang, Xiaosong;  Rosati, Anthony
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Dissecting the nonlinear response of maize yield to high temperature stress with model-data integration 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (7) : 2470-2484
作者:  Zhu, Peng;  Zhuang, Qianlai;  Archontoulis, Sotirios V.;  Bernacchi, Carl;  Mueller, Christoph
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
crop model  crop phenological stages  harvest index  high temperature stress  satellite observations  water stress  
Testing early warning metrics for drought-induced tree physiological stress and mortality 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (7) : 2459-2469
作者:  Anderegg, William R. L.;  Anderegg, Leander D. L.;  Huang, Cho-ying
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
climate change  drought  extreme events  plant hydraulics  remote sensing  
Marine heatwaves reveal coral reef zones susceptible to bleaching in the Red Sea 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (7) : 2338-2351
作者:  Genevier, Lily G. C.;  Jamil, Tahira;  Raitsos, Dionysios E.;  Krokos, George;  Hoteit, Ibrahim
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
bleaching threshold detection  conservation management tool  coral bleaching  marine heatwaves  Red Sea  unexplored tropical regions