Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1126/science.aav6634 |
Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model | |
Park, Jong-Yeon1,2,3; Stock, Charles A.2; Dunne, John P.2; Yang, Xiaosong2; Rosati, Anthony2 | |
2019-07-19 | |
发表期刊 | SCIENCE |
ISSN | 0036-8075 |
EISSN | 1095-9203 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 365期号:6450页码:284-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; South Korea |
英文摘要 | Climate variations have a profound impact on marine ecosystems and the communities that depend upon them. Anticipating ecosystem shifts using global Earth system models (ESMs) could enable communities to adapt to climate fluctuations and contribute to long-term ecosystem resilience. We show that newly developed ESM-based marine biogeochemical predictions can skillfully predict satellite-derived seasonal to multiannual chlorophyll fluctuations in many regions. Prediction skill arises primarily from successfully simulating the chlorophyll response to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and capturing the winter reemergence of subsurface nutrient anomalies in the extratropics, which subsequently affect spring and summer chlorophyll concentrations. Further investigations suggest that interannual fish-catch variations in selected large marine ecosystems can be anticipated from predicted chlorophyll and sea surface temperature anomalies. This result. together with high predictability for other marine-resource-relevant biogeochemical properties (e.g., oxygen. primary production), suggests a role for ESM-based marine biogeochemical predictions in dynamic marine resource management efforts. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000476479200054 |
WOS关键词 | COUPLED CLIMATE MODELS ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; CARBON-CYCLE ; CHLOROPHYLL ; PROJECTIONS ; MANAGEMENT ; FISHERIES ; FORMULATION ; ENVIRONMENT |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/201892 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 3.Chonbuk Natl Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Jeonju Si 54896, Jeollabuk Do, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Park, Jong-Yeon,Stock, Charles A.,Dunne, John P.,et al. Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model[J]. SCIENCE,2019,365(6450):284-+. |
APA | Park, Jong-Yeon,Stock, Charles A.,Dunne, John P.,Yang, Xiaosong,&Rosati, Anthony.(2019).Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model.SCIENCE,365(6450),284-+. |
MLA | Park, Jong-Yeon,et al."Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model".SCIENCE 365.6450(2019):284-+. |
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