Combination Hazard of Extreme rainfall, storm Surge &amp; high Tide on estuarine infrastructure (CHEST)

GSTDTAP

项目编号	NE/R009007/1
	Combination Hazard of Extreme rainfall, storm Surge & high Tide on estuarine infrastructure (CHEST)
	Thomas James Coulthard
主持机构	University of Hull
项目开始年	2017
	2017-11-14
项目结束日期	2018-09-13
资助机构	UK-NERC
项目类别	Research Grant
项目经费	105548(GBP)
国家	英国
语种	英语
英文摘要	Background and challenges: UK estuaries are at risk from combination flooding. Sea-level rise and predicted changes to UK storm patterns (affecting both surge and river flows) will alter the joint probability of multiple hazard events, making previous understanding of risk, and mitigation measures, potentially obsolete. Existing probabilistic methods for assessing combination hazard (e.g. FD2308) provide only water level hazards, with limited detail on where and when issues may occur, and vitally cannot readily accommodate revised estimates of event distributions due to sea-level rise and climate change. Combination hazards, therefore, present a clear risk to project partner's infrastructure in estuaries (e.g. Flood defences, railways, roads, water treatment works, nuclear power stations), both under present conditions - and more with greater uncertainty in the future. The ability to better forecast the specific locations and timings of such combination hazards will enable effective planning and timely warnings to industry operators, partners and the public. All of our project partners have considerable investments in areas prone to estuarine flooding including flood defences (EA), rail networks (Network Rail), water supplies (Welsh Water) and nuclear power stations (EDF Energy). The scale of national exposure to combination hazard is phenomenal. Taking the Humber alone, the projected economic costs of the 2015 surge tide occurring with 0.3m of sea level rise would be £12.5bn in direct flood damage and £10.8bn in consequential losses. Quite simply, our project partners cannot ignore how combination hazard may increase with climate change. Aims & Objectives: CHEST will assess if the management of combined river-surge-wave-tide flooding in UK estuaries (and surrounding low-lying areas) needs to be amended, especially in the light of sea-level rise and changing climates. This leads to three objectives: 1. Establish if the interaction between the combination hards of rivers, surge, waves and tides is important to resolve for estuarine flood risk. 2. Determine which of these factors and in what combination pose the greatest risk. i.e. What is the sensitivity to the different hazards and does it differ in different locations (a) within an estuary (b) between different estuaries? 3. With sea-level rise and climate change - ascertain whether the relative importance of the combination hazards change or shift. i.e. with SLR do surges become more dominant? To achieve these objectives, CHEST will use novel, fast numerical models (developed in previous NERC and EA funded projects) to simulate the combination hazard for two contrasting pilot studies (Humber and Dyfi estuaries) where the primary project partners have particular concerns. In a second phase the CHEST modelling framework will be documented, packaged and where necessary tailored to a wider group of additional project partners allowing the application to estuaries around the UK. Deliverables will be predictions in pilot basins of 'worst case' scenarios, system sensitivity to different combination hazards and for the impacts of climate change (Milestones 1, 3 & 4). As requested by PP's these will be in the form of digital maps/data of flood inundation areas, max depth, max velocities, water surface (AOD), flood duration, and a matrix/look up table for combination hazard sensitivity. For the model roll out phase, deliverables will be the software (source and exe) along with documentation and tutorials (Milestone 5). This may also involve tutorials/webinars - as requested by PP's at meetings C and D. Project duration is 10 months involving researchers from the University of Hull and Bangor University. Cost is £104 700 (80%) including 10 months PDRA (Hull); CoI and PI costs and travel for meetings. Lewis' contribution is in kind (20% for 10 months), as a Ser Cymru NRN-LCEE Research Fellow on the QUOTIENT project.
来源学科分类	Natural Environment Research
文献类型	项目
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/86909
专题	环境与发展全球科技态势
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thomas James Coulthard.Combination Hazard of Extreme rainfall, storm Surge & high Tide on estuarine infrastructure (CHEST).2017.