FATHUM: Forecasts for AnTicipatory HUManitarian action

GSTDTAP

项目编号	NE/P00041X/1
	FATHUM: Forecasts for AnTicipatory HUManitarian action
	[unavailable]
主持机构	University of Oxford
项目开始年	2016
	2016-06-30
项目结束日期	2020-06-29
资助机构	UK-NERC
项目类别	Research Grant
国家	英国
语种	英语
英文摘要	Disaster managers and development planners from around the world have realized that their skills and expertise could be put into action well before an extreme event happens, to enormously reduce suffering and avoid catastrophe. While this type of action was historically not possible, new "Forecast-based Financing" systems are now being piloted in more than 15 countries. These pilots automatically trigger preparedness actions based on a forecast of an extreme event, providing financing before a potential disaster actually happens. However, in many flood-prone locations in sub Saharan Africa, the dynamics of flooding are not well understood, nor is there clarity on what should be done if certain types of flooding are forecasted. What is driving the flooding, and the flood forecasts? What preparedness actions build resilience, and which ones undermine local capacities? The FATHUM team proposes to bring together a group of interdisciplinary researchers who will work with the existing pilots to analyze and research how this new type of Forecast-based Financing system can quickly respond to forecasts of extreme events, while still contributing to long-term resilience goals and reducing the need for disaster response. The first group of researchers will tackle flooding itself. A mixed group of hydrologists and climate scientists will explore the causes of different types of floods, and identify what atmospheric patterns could allow the most important types of floods to be predicted. Opening two positions for "Applied Forecasting Impact Fellows", much of the research will be carried out by scientists from the African regions that are being studied, and will culminate in recommendations and maps for predictability in other regions that could also implement such Forecast-based Financing systems. The second group of researchers, will explore further the "why" of flooding. They will investigate the reasons behind the fact that certain floods are more impactful than others, and identify patterns of resilience stemming from local and indigenous knowledge. This will be grounded in an understanding of the rapidly changing environment in sub-Saharan Africa, ultimately helping identify what forecast-based actions can contribute to long-term meaningful change. While there is a good deal of research on both resilience building and disaster response, disaster managers in the existing 15 pilots are struggling to understand what types of action can meaningfully fit in this "forecast-based" middle ground. FATHUM researchers will work directly with the practitioners to explore these answers. The third research group builds on the first two, examining more concretely how humanitarian systems are currently structured, and where Forecast-based Financing can fit in. Why do humanitarians not already make use of the many types of flood forecasts around the world? FATHUM will map the science-policy-practice interface to identify what promotes or inhibits the use of forecast information, and what "successful" use of such information really looks like. Lastly, the fourth research stream is an interdisciplinary group of researchers that will explore the potential and constraints for scaling up the concept of Forecast-based Financing. Integration with existing systems, such as safety nets and risk insurance schemes, will be explored collaboratively with the existing pilot projects. Ultimately, FATHUM is a novel combination: expertise from academia that is integrated seamlessly into existing disaster risk management projects, allowing practitioners to work with scientists to self-examine and reflect on a game-changing new way of working in the humanitarian sector. Critical scrutiny of the hydrometeorological aspects as well as the socioeconomic implications of taking action based on a forecast will provide a foundation for humanitarians and development practitioners worldwide to build on in their own applications of this concept.
来源学科分类	Natural Environment Research
文献类型	项目
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/86385
专题	环境与发展全球科技态势
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	[unavailable].FATHUM: Forecasts for AnTicipatory HUManitarian action.2016.