Mechanistic controls of surface warming by ocean heat and carbon uptake

GSTDTAP

项目编号	NE/N009789/1
	Mechanistic controls of surface warming by ocean heat and carbon uptake
	[unavailable]
主持机构	University of Liverpool
项目开始年	2016
	2016-06-01
项目结束日期	2019-05-31
资助机构	UK-NERC
项目类别	Research Grant
国家	英国
语种	英语
英文摘要	We are all aware of how carbon emissions are leading to concern about a warming of the planet. In our view, the climate response to carbon emissions can be divided into the following stages: 1. Past and on going increases in atmospheric CO2 are leading to a global warming of up to 0.6C over the last 50 years. The regional variability is though much larger than this global signal. 2. Continuing emissions are increasing atmospheric CO2 and driving a heat flux into the ocean, leading to ocean warming. The amount of warming is sensitive to the carbon emission scenario, as well as the rate of carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial system. 3. The regional distribution of warming and carbon drawdown is sensitive to how the ocean interior takes up heat and carbon, involving the transfer of surface properties into the thermocline and deep ocean. 4. In the future, after emissions cease may be after many hundreds of years, the atmosphere and ocean will approach an equilibrium with each other. At this point, the final atmospheric CO2 and the amount of climate warming is simply related to cumulative sum of all the previously carbon emitted. One of the key findings of the latest IPCC report is how climate model projections suggest that global warming varies nearly linearly with cumulative carbon emissions. This response is not fully explained or understood, in terms of the essential underlying mechanisms or why different climate models reveal a different amount of warming to each other. We have established a new theory to explain how surface warming varies in time with carbon emissions. The aim of the proposal is to investigate the climate warming in the following manner: (i) apply our new theory of how surface warming compares to cumulative carbon emissions, modified from an equilibrium response by the transient uptake of heat and carbon by the ocean and terrestrial systems; (ii) conduct diagnostics of how the ocean is taking up heat, examining how the ocean is ventilated in terms of volumetric changes in ocean density classes; (iii) develop ocean ventilation experiments with a range of ocean and climate models on timescales of decades to a thousand years, designed to explore the extent that the ocean uptake of heat and carbon are similar to each other, and assess their partly compensating effects on how surface warming links to carbon emissions; (iv) compare with and analyse diagnostics of state of the art climate models, integrated for a century, including climate models driven by emissions, terrestrial uptake of heat and carbon, and radiative forcing from non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols. Our new theoretical framework has the potential to provide (i) improved understanding of the mechanisms controlling the relationship between surface warming and carbon emissions, particularly focusing on the role of the ocean; (ii) traceability between different ocean and climate models, identifying clearly which factors are leading to different climate responses; (iii) reconcile Earth System model investigations over a wider parameter regime with IPCC class climate models. This study is relevant for policy makers interested in different energy policies, and a link to end users is provided via the collaboration with the Hadley Centre and NOAA GFDL. The study emphases the importance of engaging with the wider public by developing 4 targeted short and accessible videos on the climate problem, emphasising our new viewpoint.
来源学科分类	Natural Environment Research
文献类型	项目
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/86221
专题	环境与发展全球科技态势
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	[unavailable].Mechanistic controls of surface warming by ocean heat and carbon uptake.2016.