Collaborative Research: Mechanisms and Predictability of Interactions between Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and African Easterly Waves Leading to Tropical Cyclogenesis

GSTDTAP

项目编号	1747844
	Collaborative Research: Mechanisms and Predictability of Interactions between Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and African Easterly Waves Leading to Tropical Cyclogenesis
	Christopher Thorncroft
主持机构	SUNY at Albany
项目开始年	2018
	2018-03-15
项目结束日期	2021-02-28
资助机构	US-NSF
项目类别	Standard Grant
项目经费	358184(USD)
国家	美国
语种	英语
英文摘要	Tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin impact lives, the economy, and society. While the ability to forecast the track of tropical cyclones has improved, gaps remain in the knowledge and understanding of their formation or genesis, which is reflected in poorer forecasts. Recent results suggest that the African easterly waves pathway to genesis in the Atlantic Basin is influenced by the passage of eastward-moving convectively coupled Kelvin Waves. However, a quantitative assessment of the processes and predictability of these interactions is lacking. This collaborative research project between the University of Miami and the University at Albany seeks to provide such a quantitative assessment and to seek a more definite answer to an outstanding question in the tropical storm research: "why do some African easterly waves develop into Tropical Cyclone (TC) and others do not?". The project is divided into three phases. The first phase will use three decades of observational and reanalysis data to test hypotheses on the physical mechanisms related to the attribution of genesis or lack of genesis to convectively coupled Kelvin Waves, on time scales of 1-3 days. The second phase will use two decades of archived ensemble forecast data to investigate and quantify the predictability in the context of these physical mechanisms. The third phase will extend these ideas out to 1-2 weeks, accounting for the roles of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. One novel aspect of the project is the awareness of the need to take account of convectively coupled Kelvin Wave amplitude and favorability of African Easterly Wave structures for genesis. A second novel development is to use ensemble forecasts to push the boundaries of predictability, in identifying the extent to which the complex interactions are predictable out to 1-2 weeks, and connecting the predictability ideas to the governing physical mechanisms and large-scale flow regimes. The research will provide quantitative information to support tropical forecasters. The research will also bridge the gap between the weather and subseasonal prediction communities by advancing our understanding of science and predictability beyond traditional weather time scales, which is recognized nationally and globally as a priority. This will lead to the identification of regimes where predictive skill of genesis and tropical cyclone activity is high or low, thereby providing information to forecasters and ultimately the decision makers who take actions based on a potential tropical cyclone threat. A by-product of the research will be the feedback provided to operational modeling centers on strengths and weaknesses of their ensemble forecasts. Diagnostic tools developed in this research will be shared with the research community. The project will also advance Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics education by funding two students to pursue doctoral research, and in advancing new undergraduate and graduate courses on tropical meteorology. An annual exchange between Miami and Albany will enable the students to visit meteorological centers and facilities in their reciprocal cities. Undergraduate Honors thesis projects will be developed. Several outreach activities related to tropical cyclones, aimed at increasing scientific literacy among decision-makers, the media and public will be continued as part of this project. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
文献类型	项目
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/72404
专题	环境与发展全球科技态势
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Christopher Thorncroft.Collaborative Research: Mechanisms and Predictability of Interactions between Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and African Easterly Waves Leading to Tropical Cyclogenesis.2018.