PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances

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项目编号	1663885
	PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances
	Brian Anderson
主持机构	Johns Hopkins University
项目开始年	2017
	2017-09-01
项目结束日期	2022-08-31
资助机构	US-NSF
项目类别	Continuing grant
项目经费	141458(USD)
国家	美国
语种	英语
英文摘要	Extreme solar storms threaten society, in part, via Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) which damage power transmission systems. A space weather extreme event would devastate the US, costing more than $2T and leaving hundreds of millions without electricity for more than a month. The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for an immediate increase in research and improvements to our predictive capabilities to address this threat. This proposed work will make use of NSF funded data sources (AMPERE, SUPERMAG, and EarthScope) to improve existing models with in the Space Weather Modeling Framework and to generate a new tool for GIC prediction that could easily be transitioned to operations at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances (CHARGED) applies experts in various disciplines to create a fully coupled, physics-based model of GICs that includes the magnetosphere, ionosphere, and solid Earth together with validation against state-of-the art globally distributed observations. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) will be improved with realistic particle precipitation and ionospheric conductance physics. A global 3D finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) model will be used to propagate the ionosphere signal through the ground while accounting for the oceans and variable lithosphere conductivity. This model will be validated using the best available in-situ and remote data to determine its predictive accuracy. The relationship between solar driving and GICs will be explored for both historical and idealized extreme events. The project will yield fundamental new understanding of the processes leading to extreme GIC events (solicitation target 1), and expand our capability to model and forecast GIC hazards (target 2). The resulting coupled system could form a natural extension to the operational SWMF version currently at NOAA.
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文献类型	项目
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/71716
专题	环境与发展全球科技态势
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brian Anderson.PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances.2017.