RAPID: Testing Storm Track Sensitivity to Resolution and Climate Change Using UPSCALE Global Model Output

GSTDTAP

项目编号	1724566
	RAPID: Testing Storm Track Sensitivity to Resolution and Climate Change Using UPSCALE Global Model Output
	Walter Robinson
主持机构	North Carolina State University
项目开始年	2017
	2017-04-15
项目结束日期	2019-03-31
资助机构	US-NSF
项目类别	Standard Grant
项目经费	101648(USD)
国家	美国
语种	英语
英文摘要	Day-to-day weather over much of the world is driven by extratropical cyclones traveling along the storm tracks of the middle latitudes. Accurate weather forecasts thus require numerical models with high enough resolution to represent critical details of the cyclones and their evolution, and it is important to understand what constitutes adequate resolution for this purpose. Adequate resolution is likewise required to produce simulations which capture the response of cyclones and storm tracks to changes in global temperature, but it is again unclear what constitutes adequate resolution. This is particularly an issue as the expense of such simulations increases strongly with resolution. Previous work by the PIs suggests that high resolution is necessary to represent small pockets of intense precipitation within the cyclones that promote cyclone intensification and produce more energetic cyclones. In addition, cyclones in the high resolution simulations are more intense under warmer conditions, due to the increase in latent heating that accompanies the rise in specific humidity with temperature. But these results are somewhat inconclusive as the simulations were performed with a regional model due to lack of access to global models with adequate resolution. This project addresses the role of small-scale precipitation features in the intensification of cyclones, and the resulting potential for more energetic cyclones in a warming climate, using high-resolution simulations carried out as part of the United Kingdom UPSCALE project (UPSCALE is short for UK on PRACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk, where PRACE is the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe). The UPSCALE project has produced global simulations at medium and high resolutions (up to 25km), both for present-day climate conditions and for warmer climates which are projected to occur due to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. The simulations are ideally suited for the PIs' research although they were produced for other reasons. The project is funded through the RAPID mechanism to expedite the research so that it can be conducted according to the timeline of the ongoing UK project. A key issue in the timing is that UPSCALE is a precursor to the more intensive PRIMAVERA project, which will produce global simulations with resolutions as high as 5km. PRIMAVERA is the European contribution to the HighResMIP sub-project of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6), which will inform the next assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Near-term results of this project can thus play a critical role in defining the research agenda of PRIMAVERA and informing the assessment report. The work has broader impacts due to the dominant influence of extratropical cyclones on sensible weather over the US and other midlatitude regions, and the value of guidance regarding possible increases in cyclone intensity due to climate change. The work also builds an international scientific collaboration which allows US PIs access to high-resolution simulations produced at substantial cost. In addition, the project provides support and training for a graduate student, thereby providing for the next generation workforce in this research area.
来源学科分类	Geosciences - Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
文献类型	项目
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/70968
专题	环境与发展全球科技态势
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Walter Robinson.RAPID: Testing Storm Track Sensitivity to Resolution and Climate Change Using UPSCALE Global Model Output.2017.