Collaborative Research: P2C2--Late Holocene Climate: Natural or Anthropogenic?

GSTDTAP

项目编号	1602771
	Collaborative Research: P2C2--Late Holocene Climate: Natural or Anthropogenic?
	Stephen Vavrus
主持机构	University of Wisconsin-Madison
项目开始年	2016
	2016-06-01
项目结束日期	2019-05-31
资助机构	US-NSF
项目类别	Standard Grant
项目经费	444971(USD)
国家	美国
语种	英语
英文摘要	This collaborative project generally aims to address a fundamental and yet unresolved question about Holocene climate which is: When did humans assume the "driver's seat" of the global climate system? Did it coincide with the advent of the Industrial Era, as traditionally believed, or did it instead occur many millennia ago with the emergence of agriculture? The scientific community remains divided on whether carbon emissions released by early farming activities were large enough to explain the unprecedented rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations during the late Holocene compared with declines in these climatic drivers during recent previous inter-glacial periods. This research will test the "Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis," which posits that anthropogenic global climate change was initiated by agriculture in the middle Holocene, by identifying the "fingerprint" of human influence on global climate during the past 6,000 years. The project will capitalize on state-of-the-art earth system models to distinguish between the actual climatic evolution of the late Holocene and the hypothesized "natural" trajectory that would have been followed in the absence of human land clearance and greenhouse-gas overprints. To achieve this goal, a pair of 6,000-year long transient simulations will be run with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In one experiment CESM will be driven by historical variations in orbital parameters, GHG concentrations, and regional land clearance, whereas the latter two forcings will differ in the counterpart experiment according to the hypothesized declines in carbon dioxide and methane and the associated global vegetation patterns compatible with "natural" climate evolution. The Broader Impacts involve the potential for a unique and potentially transformative shift in the scientific understanding of human influence on global climate.
来源学科分类	Geosciences - Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
文献类型	项目
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/69626
专题	环境与发展全球科技态势
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stephen Vavrus.Collaborative Research: P2C2--Late Holocene Climate: Natural or Anthropogenic?.2016.