The role of uncertainty in waveguide perturbations on midlatitude predictability with DOWNSTREAM

GSTDTAP

项目编号	1461753
	The role of uncertainty in waveguide perturbations on midlatitude predictability with DOWNSTREAM
	Ryan Torn
主持机构	SUNY at Albany
项目开始年	2015
	2015-09-01
项目结束日期	2018-08-31
资助机构	US-NSF
项目类别	Continuing grant
项目经费	112354(USD)
国家	美国
语种	英语
英文摘要	The principal investigator of this proposal will assess whether changes to the structure of the jet stream that occur in conjunction with the development of cyclones are significant sources of weather forecast errors further downstream. These events can result in poorly forecast extreme weather events. The project will contribute to the future US workforce through the training of a graduate student in state-of-the-art approaches to predictability, data assimilation, and synoptic/mesoscale meteorology. A successful project will develop understanding that can lead to improved weather forecasts, and in turn provide greater lead time for warnings and reduced loss of life and property due to certain mid-latitude extreme weather events. The goal of this proposal is to evaluate the hypothesis that waveguide perturbations associated with midlatitude cyclones and the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones (ET) are an important source of downstream forecast errors. The first phase of this proposal involves evaluating this hypothesis by comparing the downstream predictability following the development of midlatitude cyclones and ET and comparing it to a predictability climatology using 31 years of ensemble forecasts from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory 2nd generation reforecast project. Moreover, this study will evaluate hypotheses regarding the predictability of midlatitude vs. ET cyclones and how this predictability varies depending on the magnitude of the waveguide perturbation. In addition, this study will evaluate hypotheses related to how uncertainty in the outflow and thermodynamic profile in the vicinity of waveguide perturbations impact the downstream predictability. The role of the outflow on the downstream state will be evaluated by comparing the sensitivity of forecast metrics related to the downstream state to the outflow against the sensitivity of the forecast metrics to other aspects of the state. The role of the outflow will be confirmed by performing a series of perturbed initial condition experiments where aspects of the initial-time outflow properties are modified, and then evaluating the impact on the downstream state.
来源学科分类	Geosciences - Polar Programs
文献类型	项目
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/68691
专题	环境与发展全球科技态势
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ryan Torn.The role of uncertainty in waveguide perturbations on midlatitude predictability with DOWNSTREAM.2015.