Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research. Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

doi:10.2172/1010914

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.2172/1010914
报告编号	DOE/ER64428
来源ID	OSTI ID: 1010914
	Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research. Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"
	Christopher S. Bretherton
	2011-04-08
出版年	2011
页数	11
语种	英语
国家	美国
领域	地球科学
英文摘要	This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs, we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.
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来源平台	US Department of Energy (DOE)
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文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/5305
专题	地球科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Christopher S. Bretherton. Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research. Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models",2011.