Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.7249/RR701 |
报告编号 | RR-701-A |
Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition | |
Craig Bond; Lauren A. Mayer; Michael McMahon; James G. Kallimani; Ricardo Sanchez | |
2015 | |
出版年 | 2015 |
页数 | 184 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 美国 |
出版者 | RAND Corporation |
领域 | 资源环境 |
英文摘要 | This report describes the methodology for risk-informed trade-space analysis developed by the U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity Risk Integrated Product Team and researchers from the RAND Corporation and the first iteration of the associated Risk-Informed Trade Analysis Model. The framework combines elements of system engineering, production economics, and risk analysis to functionally and probabilistically relate performance, schedule, and cost outcomes and their uncertainties holistically and understandably. The technology development process is conceptualized as one in which the physical system is described as a portfolio of technologies with associated technical capabilities, and the completion of each technology's development is a discrete random variable. The performance characteristics of the final system are stochastic. In addition, the time of technology development is also stochastic and, in part, drives the overall cost of the system. In a departure from previous analyses, the authors incorporate technology-specific courses of action, or risk-mitigation behaviors, that are assumed to take place in the event that the technology is not developed at the milestone date. For example, one might assume that a lesser-performing but existing substitute could replace a particular developmental technology or that, if that technology is of critical importance, the schedule might be allowed to slip. Through analysis of alternative courses of action and their effects on the resultant probability distributions estimated for performance, schedule, and cost, decisionmakers have a means to understand the implications of certain risk-mitigating actions. Technology, schedule, and cost trades can be examined between or within individual systems. |
英文关键词 | Modeling and Simulation Decisionmaking Military Acquisition and Procurement Economic Analysis Methodology |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | Rand Corporation |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 科技报告 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/4080 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Craig Bond,Lauren A. Mayer,Michael McMahon,et al. Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition:RAND Corporation,2015. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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