Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition

doi:10.7249/RR701

GSTDTAP > 资源环境科学

DOI	10.7249/RR701
报告编号	RR-701-A
	Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition
	Craig Bond; Lauren A. Mayer; Michael McMahon; James G. Kallimani; Ricardo Sanchez
	2015
出版年	2015
页数	184
语种	英语
国家	美国
出版者	RAND Corporation
领域	资源环境
英文摘要	This report describes the methodology for risk-informed trade-space analysis developed by the U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity Risk Integrated Product Team and researchers from the RAND Corporation and the first iteration of the associated Risk-Informed Trade Analysis Model. The framework combines elements of system engineering, production economics, and risk analysis to functionally and probabilistically relate performance, schedule, and cost outcomes and their uncertainties holistically and understandably. The technology development process is conceptualized as one in which the physical system is described as a portfolio of technologies with associated technical capabilities, and the completion of each technology's development is a discrete random variable. The performance characteristics of the final system are stochastic. In addition, the time of technology development is also stochastic and, in part, drives the overall cost of the system. In a departure from previous analyses, the authors incorporate technology-specific courses of action, or risk-mitigation behaviors, that are assumed to take place in the event that the technology is not developed at the milestone date. For example, one might assume that a lesser-performing but existing substitute could replace a particular developmental technology or that, if that technology is of critical importance, the schedule might be allowed to slip. Through analysis of alternative courses of action and their effects on the resultant probability distributions estimated for performance, schedule, and cost, decisionmakers have a means to understand the implications of certain risk-mitigating actions. Technology, schedule, and cost trades can be examined between or within individual systems.
英文关键词	Modeling and Simulation Decisionmaking Military Acquisition and Procurement Economic Analysis Methodology
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来源平台	Rand Corporation
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/4080
专题	资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Craig Bond,Lauren A. Mayer,Michael McMahon,et al. Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition:RAND Corporation,2015.