The Future of Driving in Developing Countries

doi:10.7249/RR636

GSTDTAP > 资源环境科学

DOI	10.7249/RR636
报告编号	RR-636-ifmo
	The Future of Driving in Developing Countries
	Liisa Ecola; Charlene Rohr; Johanna Zmud; Tobias Kuhnimhof; Peter Phleps
	2014
出版年	2014
页数	132
语种	英语
国家	美国
出版者	RAND Corporation
领域	资源环境
英文摘要	The level of automobility, defined as travel in personal vehicles, is often seen as a function of income: The higher a country's per capita income, the greater the amount of driving. However, levels of automobility vary quite substantially between countries even at similar levels of economic development. This suggests that countries follow different mobility paths. The research detailed in this report sought to answer three questions: What are the factors besides economic development that affect automobility? What is their influence on automobility? What will happen to automobility in developing countries if they progress along similar paths as developed countries? To answer these questions, the authors developed a methodology to identify these factors, model their impact on developed countries, and forecast automobility (as defined by per capita vehicle-kilometers traveled [VKT]) in four developing countries. This methodology draws on quantitative analysis of historical automobility development in four country case studies (the United States, Australia, Germany, and Japan) that represent very different levels of per capita automobility, in combination with data derived from an expert-based qualitative approach. The authors used the latter to assess how these experiences may affect the future of automobility in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. According to this analysis, automobility levels in the four BRIC countries will fall between those of the United States (which has the highest per capita VKT level of the four case studies) and Japan (which has the lowest). Brazil is forecasted to have the highest per capita VKT and India the lowest.
英文关键词	Surface Traffic Models Transportation Modeling Exploratory Modeling Transportation Planning Statistical Analysis Methodology Developing Countries
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来源平台	Rand Corporation
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/3979
专题	资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liisa Ecola,Charlene Rohr,Johanna Zmud,et al. The Future of Driving in Developing Countries:RAND Corporation,2014.