Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.015 |
Skilful rainfall forecasts from artificial neural networks with long duration series and single-month optimization | |
Abbot, John1,2,3; Marohasy, Jennifer1,2 | |
2017-11-15 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 197 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | General circulation models, which forecast by first modelling actual conditions in the atmosphere and ocean, are used extensively for monthly rainfall forecasting. We show how more skilful monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts can be achieved through the mining of historical climate data using artificial neural networks (ANNs). This technique is demonstrated for two agricultural regions of Australia: the wheat belt of Western Australia and the sugar growing region of coastal Queensland. The most skilful monthly rainfall forecasts measured in terms of Ideal Point Error (IPE), and a score relative to climatology, are consistently achieved through the use of ANNs optimized for each month individually, and also by choosing to input longer historical series of climate indices. Using the longer series restricts the number of climate indices that can be used. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000412250700024 |
WOS关键词 | FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM ; SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL ; SEASONAL RAINFALL ; WESTERN-AUSTRALIA ; PRECIPITATION PREDICTION ; CLIMATE INDEXES ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; EASTERN AUSTRALIA ; WAVELET ANALYSIS ; ARID REGIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38472 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Climate Modelling Lab, Noosa, Qld, Australia; 2.Inst Publ Affairs, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 3.James Cook Univ, Townsville, Qld, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Abbot, John,Marohasy, Jennifer. Skilful rainfall forecasts from artificial neural networks with long duration series and single-month optimization[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2017,197. |
APA | Abbot, John,&Marohasy, Jennifer.(2017).Skilful rainfall forecasts from artificial neural networks with long duration series and single-month optimization.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,197. |
MLA | Abbot, John,et al."Skilful rainfall forecasts from artificial neural networks with long duration series and single-month optimization".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 197(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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