Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.07.008 |
Selection of climate models for projection of spatiotemporal changes in temperature of Iraq with uncertainties | |
Salman, Saleem A.1; Shahid, Shamsuddin1; Ismail, Tarmizi1; Ahmed, Kamal1; Wang, Xiao-Jun2 | |
2018-11-15 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 213页码:509-522 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Malaysia; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | A hybrid approach by combining the past performance and the envelope methods has been proposed for the selection of an ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs) of Couple Model Intercomparison phase 5 (CMIP5) for the projection of spatiotemporal changes in annual and seasonal temperatures of Iraq for four representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. A filter known as Symmetrical Uncertainty (SU) was used to rank the GCMs considering their ability to simulate monthly average of daily maximum and minimum temperature for the historical period (1961-2005). The highest rank GCMs that represents the widest range of projection was then selected for the projection of temperature through statistical downscaling. A linear bias correction approach was used for the downscaling of temperature, a random forest regression was used to generate multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of projections and a quantile regression (QR) was used to assess the trends in projections at 95% level of confidence. Four GCMs namely, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MIROC-ESM were found most suitable for projection of temperature of Iraq. Ensemble mean of the selected GCMs revealed increases in minimum temperatures in the range of 1.5-2.4 degrees C, 1.6-3.6 degrees C, 1.2-4.2 degrees C, and 1.3-6.2 degrees C and maximum temperatures in the range of 1.7-2.9 degrees C, 1.8-4.4 degrees C, 1.5-4.9 degrees C, and 1.7-6.8 degrees C under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively during 2070-2099. Higher increases in temperatures were projected in the north and northeast of Iraq where the average temperature is usually low, which indicates that spatial distribution of temperature would be more homogeneous in future compared to base years. The maximum temperature was found to increase more in winter while the minimum in summer. The quantile regression revealed that average summer maximum temperature may reach almost 50 degrees C, while the sub-zero temperature will gradually become rare during winter. |
英文关键词 | Temperature Global circulation models Systematic uncertainty Representative concentration pathways Quantile regression Iraq |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000442169800042 |
WOS关键词 | MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ; MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ; SOUTHWEST ASIA ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; EAST-COAST ; TRENDS ; PRECIPITATION ; EXTREMES ; RAINFALL ; RANKING |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38157 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Teknol Malaysia, Dept Hydraul & Hydrol, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia; 2.Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Salman, Saleem A.,Shahid, Shamsuddin,Ismail, Tarmizi,et al. Selection of climate models for projection of spatiotemporal changes in temperature of Iraq with uncertainties[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2018,213:509-522. |
APA | Salman, Saleem A.,Shahid, Shamsuddin,Ismail, Tarmizi,Ahmed, Kamal,&Wang, Xiao-Jun.(2018).Selection of climate models for projection of spatiotemporal changes in temperature of Iraq with uncertainties.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,213,509-522. |
MLA | Salman, Saleem A.,et al."Selection of climate models for projection of spatiotemporal changes in temperature of Iraq with uncertainties".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 213(2018):509-522. |
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