Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012 |
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways | |
Rao, Shilpa1,2; Klimont, Zbigniew1; Smith, Steven J.3,4; Van Dingenen, Rita5; Dentener, Frank5; Bouwman, Lex6,7; Riahi, Keywan1,8; Amann, Markus1; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon9,10; van Vuuren, Detlef P.6,11; Reis, Lara Aleluia12,13; Calvin, Katherine3; Drouet, Laurent12,13; Fricko, Oliver1; Fujimori, Shinichiro14; Gernaat, David6; Havlik, Petr1; Harmsen, Mathijs6; Hasegawa, Tomoko14; Heyes, Chris1; Hilaire, Jerome9,15; Luderer, Gunnar9; Masui, Toshihiko14; Stehfest, Elke6; Strefler, Jessica9; van der Sluis, Sietske6; Tavoni, Massimo12,13,16 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
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ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 42 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Austria; Norway; USA; Italy; Netherlands; Germany; Australia; Japan |
英文摘要 | Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
英文关键词 | Scenarios Air pollution Integrated assessment models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394634500029 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; GLOBAL BURDEN ; QUALITY ; SCENARIOS ; EMISSIONS ; EXPOSURE ; MORTALITY ; BENEFITS ; DISEASE ; OZONE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38003 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; 2.Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, POB 4404, N-0403 Oslo, Norway; 3.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, 5825 Univ Res Court,Suite 3500, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 4.Univ Maryland, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 5.Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy; 6.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Ant van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, NL-3721 MA Bilthoven, Netherlands; 7.Univ Utrecht, Dept Earth Sci, Fac Geosci, POB 80021, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands; 8.Graz Univ Technol, A-8010 Graz, Austria; 9.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany; 10.Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org, Agr Flagship, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia; 11.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands; 12.FEEM, Corso Magenta 63, I-20123 Milan, Italy; 13.Ctr Euromediterraneo & Cambiamenti Climat CMCC, Via Augusto Imperatore 16, I-73100 Lecce, Italy; 14.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan; 15.Mercator Res Inst Global Commons & Climate Change, Torgauer Str 12-15, D-10829 Berlin, Germany; 16.Politecn Milan, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, I-20133 Milan, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rao, Shilpa,Klimont, Zbigniew,Smith, Steven J.,et al. Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,42. |
APA | Rao, Shilpa.,Klimont, Zbigniew.,Smith, Steven J..,Van Dingenen, Rita.,Dentener, Frank.,...&Tavoni, Massimo.(2017).Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,42. |
MLA | Rao, Shilpa,et al."Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 42(2017). |
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