Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization

doi:10.7249/RR644

GSTDTAP > 资源环境科学

DOI	10.7249/RR644
报告编号	RR-644-OSD
	Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization
	Jonah Blank; Christopher Clary; Brian Nichiporuk
	2014
出版年	2014
页数	88
语种	英语
国家	美国
出版者	RAND Corporation
领域	资源环境
英文摘要	Already one of the most urbanized nations in South Asia, Pakistan is projected to have a majority of its population living in cities within three decades. This demographic shift will alter Pakistan's politics and threaten its stability, but the political and security implications of Pakistan's urbanization remain underanalyzed. This report examines urbanization as a potential driver of long-term insecurity and instability, with particular attention to the cities of Karachi, Lahore, and Quetta. Drawing on demographic trends, election results, and survey data, the authors conclude that urbanization may fuel anti-American sentiment and help recruitment by transnational Islamist groups (but not necessarily Islamist political parties) in the short term. Urbanization is also likely to increase popular demand for political reform in Pakistan. In the near future, a Pakistani government more directly accountable to its electorate might be less willing to cooperate with the United States in unpopular security policies. In the long run, however, a Pakistani government more responsive to its citizens could be a better security partner for the United States. By spurring Pakistani policymakers to focus on provision of good governance and public services rather than on scapegoating external actors, political reform may eventually help reduce anti-American attitudes.
英文关键词	Migration Global Security Counterterrorism Politics and Government Pakistan Security Cooperation
URL	查看原文
来源平台	Rand Corporation
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/3799
专题	资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jonah Blank,Christopher Clary,Brian Nichiporuk. Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization:RAND Corporation,2014.