Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.7249/RR644 |
报告编号 | RR-644-OSD |
Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization | |
Jonah Blank; Christopher Clary; Brian Nichiporuk | |
2014 | |
出版年 | 2014 |
页数 | 88 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 美国 |
出版者 | RAND Corporation |
领域 | 资源环境 |
英文摘要 | Already one of the most urbanized nations in South Asia, Pakistan is projected to have a majority of its population living in cities within three decades. This demographic shift will alter Pakistan's politics and threaten its stability, but the political and security implications of Pakistan's urbanization remain underanalyzed. This report examines urbanization as a potential driver of long-term insecurity and instability, with particular attention to the cities of Karachi, Lahore, and Quetta. Drawing on demographic trends, election results, and survey data, the authors conclude that urbanization may fuel anti-American sentiment and help recruitment by transnational Islamist groups (but not necessarily Islamist political parties) in the short term. Urbanization is also likely to increase popular demand for political reform in Pakistan. In the near future, a Pakistani government more directly accountable to its electorate might be less willing to cooperate with the United States in unpopular security policies. In the long run, however, a Pakistani government more responsive to its citizens could be a better security partner for the United States. By spurring Pakistani policymakers to focus on provision of good governance and public services rather than on scapegoating external actors, political reform may eventually help reduce anti-American attitudes. |
英文关键词 | Migration Global Security Counterterrorism Politics and Government Pakistan Security Cooperation |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | Rand Corporation |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 科技报告 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/3799 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jonah Blank,Christopher Clary,Brian Nichiporuk. Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization:RAND Corporation,2014. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论