资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Future anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions determine climate change in China, which influences crop growth and food production. However, very few studies have investigated their combined climate impacts on crop yields. Here, we apply a process-based modeling approach to examine potential climatic impacts of air pollution controls on maize yields in China for two future scenarios in the 2030s. The model suggests that reducing aerosol pollution emissions increases radiation, temperature and precipitation. Increased radiation and precipitation enhance yields while higher temperature reduces yields. These contrasting climate effects offset each other, leading to varied spatial responses in yields. Following the current legislation emission scenario, maize yield declines by 2.3% because air pollution shows only moderate reductions and the higher future temperature exerts the dominant detrimental impacts. In contrast, with the maximum technically feasible reduction scenario, the maize yield is projected to increase by 4.4% relative to the current level, because the benefit of increased radiation and precipitation outweighs the detrimental impacts of warming. Our results suggest that stringent aerosol pollution regulations can help mitigate maize yield losses in China due to the future climate warming.