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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5550 |
Seasonal precipitation forecast over Mexico based on a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach | |
Fuentes-Franco, Ramon1,2; Giorgi, Filippo1; Pavia, Edgar G.3; Graef, Federico3,4; Coppola, Erika1 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:11页码:4051-4065 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Italy; Sweden; Mexico |
英文摘要 | We introduce a new hybrid scheme for seasonal precipitation prediction over the Mexican territory. The scheme takes as input sea surface temperature (SST) predicted from the ECMWF System 4 coupled model (Sys4) identifying three predictors, namely SST over the western Pacific (WP), eastern Pacific (EP) and tropical Atlantic (TA); these predictors are used to forecast precipitation on a high-resolution grid via a multiple regression model. Comparison of the performance of the hybrid scheme with the Sys4 model for ensemble re-forecasts for the period 1982-2010 shows that the hybrid model adds skill to the Sys4 forecast, with higher correlations and Heidke skill scores throughout most of the Mexican territory, both in winter and summer. In winter the contribution of the EP is dominant in modulating precipitation via the effects of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while in summer the contributions of the WP and TA are dominant in different Mexican regions. The hybrid scheme, applied to high-resolution precipitation observations, also produces significant fine-scale variability of forecast skill and mechanism contributions. Overall, we show that our hybrid approach can provide a useful tool to improve seasonal precipitation forecasts over Mexico. |
英文关键词 | hybrid model interannual variability seasonal forecast |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000443683600001 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; TROPICAL ATLANTIC ; EL-NINO ; CLIMATE ; DROUGHT ; VARIABILITY ; AMERICAN ; PACIFIC ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37334 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Trieste, Italy; 2.SMHI, Folkborgsvagen 17, S-60271 Norrkoping, Sweden; 3.CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico; 4.CONACYT, Mexico City, DF, Mexico |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fuentes-Franco, Ramon,Giorgi, Filippo,Pavia, Edgar G.,et al. Seasonal precipitation forecast over Mexico based on a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(11):4051-4065. |
APA | Fuentes-Franco, Ramon,Giorgi, Filippo,Pavia, Edgar G.,Graef, Federico,&Coppola, Erika.(2018).Seasonal precipitation forecast over Mexico based on a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(11),4051-4065. |
MLA | Fuentes-Franco, Ramon,et al."Seasonal precipitation forecast over Mexico based on a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.11(2018):4051-4065. |
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