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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5383 |
Subtropical cyclones near-term projections from an ensemble of regional climate models over the northeastern Atlantic basin | |
Gonzalez-Aleman, Juan J.1; Gaertner, Miguel A.2; Sanchez, Enrique2; Romera, Raquel1 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38页码:E454-E465 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain |
英文摘要 | Since nearly a decade ago, hybrid cyclones called subtropical cyclones (STCs) have attracted the attention of scientific and forecasting community due to their identification as damaging weather systems. Research about them has been so far focused on present climate data. A study of STCs under future climate scenarios has not been performed yet. For the first time, in this work we analyse the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate STCs in addition to searching for possible alterations in their frequency and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change over the subtropical northeastern Atlantic basin. By using an ensemble of three RCMs nested in four different global climate models (GCMs), we find that RCMs acceptably reproduce STCs (except for certain model combinations) for the historical climate period (1951-2000), giving support for the analysis of future climate results. In pure GCM simulations, no STCs are identified. For future climate conditions under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios (2001-2050), more simulations indicate a decrease in the frequency of STCs than those which find an increase. This decrease is showed to be partially due to a reduced presence of extratropical cyclones, from which they tend to form, within that region. However, no strong agreement between simulations has been obtained, and other factors like the changes in the conversion rate could affect STCs in the future. With respect to intensity, no clear tendency is found. |
英文关键词 | regional climate modelling subtropical cyclones extratropical cyclones convection climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431999600031 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC ; TROPICAL TRANSITION ; SOUTH ATLANTIC ; CANARY-ISLANDS ; EAST-COAST ; IDENTIFICATION ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; REANALYSIS ; CRITERIA |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37300 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.UCLM, Environm Sci Inst, Ave Carlos III S-N, Toledo 45071, Spain; 2.UCLM, Fac Environm Sci & Biochem, Toledo, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gonzalez-Aleman, Juan J.,Gaertner, Miguel A.,Sanchez, Enrique,et al. Subtropical cyclones near-term projections from an ensemble of regional climate models over the northeastern Atlantic basin[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E454-E465. |
APA | Gonzalez-Aleman, Juan J.,Gaertner, Miguel A.,Sanchez, Enrique,&Romera, Raquel.(2018).Subtropical cyclones near-term projections from an ensemble of regional climate models over the northeastern Atlantic basin.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E454-E465. |
MLA | Gonzalez-Aleman, Juan J.,et al."Subtropical cyclones near-term projections from an ensemble of regional climate models over the northeastern Atlantic basin".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E454-E465. |
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