GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5481
Modelling serial clustering and inter-annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large-scale drivers
Walz, Michael A.1; Befort, Daniel J.1; Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas Otto1,2; Ulbrich, Uwe3; Leckebusch, Gregor C.1
2018-06-15
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38期号:7页码:3044-3057
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England; Germany
英文摘要

Winter windstorms are known to be among the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards in Europe. In order to gain a better understanding of their variability and driving mechanisms, this study analyses the temporal variability which is often referred to as serial or seasonal clustering. This is realized by developing a statistical model relating the winter storm counts to known teleconnection patterns affecting European weather and climate conditions (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Scandinavian pattern [SCA], etc.). The statistical model is developed via a stepwise Poisson regression approach that is applied to windstorm counts and large-scale indices retrieved from the ERA-20C reanalysis. Significant large-scale drivers accountable for the inter-annual variability of storms for several European regions are identified and compared. In addition to the SCA and the NAO which are found to be the essential drivers for most areas within the European domain, other teleconnections (e.g., East Atlantic pattern) are found to be more significant for the inter-annual variability in certain regions. Furthermore, the statistical model allows an estimation of the expected number of storms per winter season and also whether a season has the characteristic of being what we define an active or inactive season. The statistical model reveals high skill particularly over British Isles and central Europe; however, even for regions with less frequent storm events (e.g., southern and eastern Europe) the model shows adequate positive skill. This feature could be of specific interest for the actuarial sector.


英文关键词extratropical cyclones large-scale drivers North Atlantic Oscillation Poisson model Scandinavian pattern serial clustering statistical modelling windstorms
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000439792300010
WOS关键词NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; ARCTIC SEA-ICE ; EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES ; CLIMATE ; CIRCULATION ; IMPACT ; SIMULATIONS ; ENSEMBLE ; PATTERNS ; REGION
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36810
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England;
2.Newcastle Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England;
3.Free Univ Berlin, Inst Meteorol, Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Walz, Michael A.,Befort, Daniel J.,Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas Otto,et al. Modelling serial clustering and inter-annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large-scale drivers[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(7):3044-3057.
APA Walz, Michael A.,Befort, Daniel J.,Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas Otto,Ulbrich, Uwe,&Leckebusch, Gregor C..(2018).Modelling serial clustering and inter-annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large-scale drivers.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(7),3044-3057.
MLA Walz, Michael A.,et al."Modelling serial clustering and inter-annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large-scale drivers".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.7(2018):3044-3057.
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