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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5382 |
Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation | |
Baker, L. H.1; Shaffrey, L. C.1; Scaife, A. A.2,3 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38页码:E437-E453 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | The aim of this study is to further our understanding of whether skilful seasonal forecasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation can be downscaled to provide skilful seasonal forecasts of regional precipitation. A simple multiple linear regression model is developed to describe winter precipitation variability in nine UK regions. The model for each region is a linear combination of two mean sea-level pressure (MSLP)-based indices which are derived from the MSLP correlation patterns for precipitation in northwest Scotland and southeast England. The first index is a pressure dipole, similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation but shifted to the east; the second index is the MSLP anomaly centred over the UK. The multiple linear regression model describes up to 76% of the observed precipitation variability in each region and gives higher correlations with precipitation than using either of the two indices alone. The Met Office's seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) is found to have significant skill in forecasting the two MSLP indices for the winter season, in forecasts initialized around the start of November. Applying the multiple linear regression model to the GloSea5 hindcasts is shown to give improved skill over the precipitation forecast by the GloSea5, with the largest improvement in Scotland. |
英文关键词 | precipitation atmospheric circulation seasonal forecasting downscaling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431999600030 |
WOS关键词 | LONG-RANGE FORECASTS ; AIR-FLOW INFLUENCES ; LAMB WEATHER TYPES ; UNITED-KINGDOM ; LOCAL CLIMATE ; WINTER ; ATLANTIC ; ENGLAND ; MODEL ; WALES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36573 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, NCAS Climate, Reading, Berks, England; 2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 3.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Baker, L. H.,Shaffrey, L. C.,Scaife, A. A.. Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E437-E453. |
APA | Baker, L. H.,Shaffrey, L. C.,&Scaife, A. A..(2018).Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E437-E453. |
MLA | Baker, L. H.,et al."Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E437-E453. |
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