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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3776-9 |
Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing | |
Frederiksen, Carsten S.1,2; Ying, Kairan3; Grainger, Simon1; Zheng, Xiaogu3 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:2845-2865 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset are evaluated for their ability to simulate the dominant slow modes of interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation 500 hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century. A multi-model ensemble of the best 13 models has then been used to identify the leading modes of interannual variability in components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. Modes in the intraseasonal component are related to intraseasonal variability in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and North American, and Eurasian regions and are little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The leading modes in the slow-internal component are related to the El Nio-Southern Oscillation, Pacific North American or Tropical Northern Hemisphere teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern. While the structure of these slow-internal modes is little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario, their explained variance increases in the warmer climate. The leading mode in the slow-external component has a significant trend and is shown to be related predominantly to the climate change trend in the well mixed greenhouse gas concentration during the historical period. This mode is associated with increasing height in the 500 hPa pressure level. A secondary influence on this mode is the radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols associated with volcanic eruptions. The second slow-external mode is shown to be also related to radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols. Under RCP8.5 there is only one slow-external mode related to greenhouse gas forcing with a trend over four times the historical trend. |
英文关键词 | Modes of interannual variability Atmospheric circulation Northern hemisphere CMIP5 models Climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428600200031 |
WOS关键词 | SEASONAL-MEAN FIELDS ; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ; TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ; STORM TRACKS ; ATLANTIC ; OSCILLATION ; SIMULATIONS ; PREDICTION ; ENSEMBLE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36335 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 2.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, CAS Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res Temperate Ea, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frederiksen, Carsten S.,Ying, Kairan,Grainger, Simon,et al. Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:2845-2865. |
APA | Frederiksen, Carsten S.,Ying, Kairan,Grainger, Simon,&Zheng, Xiaogu.(2018).Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,2845-2865. |
MLA | Frederiksen, Carsten S.,et al."Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):2845-2865. |
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