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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4098-2 |
Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability | |
Hui, Chang1,2,3; Zheng, Xiao-Tong1,2,3 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:3597-3611 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447366100024 |
WOS关键词 | CMIP5 MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; NORTH-AMERICAN CLIMATE ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; COUPLED MODEL ; PART I ; PATTERN ; ENSO ; PROJECTIONS ; FEEDBACKS ; AMPLITUDE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36319 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, CIMST, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 3.Ocean Univ China, Key Lab Ocean Atmosphere Interact & Climate Univ, Coll Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Qingdao, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hui, Chang,Zheng, Xiao-Tong. Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:3597-3611. |
APA | Hui, Chang,&Zheng, Xiao-Tong.(2018).Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,3597-3611. |
MLA | Hui, Chang,et al."Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):3597-3611. |
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