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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3146-z |
West African monsoon dynamics and precipitation: the competition between global SST warming and CO2 increase in CMIP5 idealized simulations | |
Gaetani, Marco1,2; Flamant, Cyrille1; Bastin, Sophie1; Janicot, Serge3; Lavaysse, Christophe4; Hourdin, Frederic2; Braconnot, Pascale5; Bony, Sandrine2 | |
2017-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; Italy |
英文摘要 | Climate variability associated with the West African monsoon (WAM) has important environmental and socio-economic impacts in the region. However, state-of-the-art climate models still struggle in producing reliable climate predictions. An important cause of this low predictive skill is the sensitivity of climate models to different forcings. In this study, the mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO2 forcing are investigated, by comparing the effect of the CO2 direct radiative effect with its indirect effect mediated by the global sea surface warming. The July-to-September WAM variability is studied in climate simulations extracted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive, driven by prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 atmospheric concentration increase are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4 K warmer SST and a quadrupled CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show opposite and competing responses in the WAM dynamics and precipitation. A dry response (-0.6 mm/day) to the SST warming is simulated in the Sahel, with dryer conditions over western Sahel (-0.8 mm/day). Conversely, the CO2 increase produces wet conditions (+0.5 mm/day) in the Sahel, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel (+0.7 mm/day). The associated responses in the atmospheric dynamics are also analysed, showing that the SST warming affects the Sahelian precipitation through modifications in the global tropical atmospheric dynamics, reducing the importance of the regional drivers, while the CO2 increase reinforces the coupling between precipitation and regional dynamics. A general agreement in model responses demonstrates the robustness of the identified mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO2 direct and indirect forcing, and indicates that these primary mechanisms are captured by climate models. Results also suggest that the spread in future projections may be caused by unbalanced model responses to the CO2 direct and indirect forcing. |
英文关键词 | West Africa Sahel Monsoon Precipitation Sahara CO2 SST Global warming Climate modelling CMIP5 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394150500036 |
WOS关键词 | SAHEL RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; SAHARAN HEAT LOW ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EASTERLY JET ; SEASONAL EVOLUTION ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; 20TH-CENTURY ; CIRCULATION ; TRENDS ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36313 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Sorbonne Univ, UPMC Univ Paris 06, Lab Atmospheres Milieux Observat Spatiales LATMOS, UVSQ,CNRS, Paris, France; 2.Sorbonne Univ, UPMC Univ Paris 06, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Ecole Polytech,CNRS,LMD IPSL,Ecole Normale Super, Paris, France; 3.Sorbonne Univ, UPMC Univ Paris 06, Lab Oceanog & Climat Expt & Approches Numer, LOCEAN IPSL,IRD,MNHM,CNRS, Paris, France; 4.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy; 5.CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, UVSQ, CNRS,LSCE IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gaetani, Marco,Flamant, Cyrille,Bastin, Sophie,et al. West African monsoon dynamics and precipitation: the competition between global SST warming and CO2 increase in CMIP5 idealized simulations[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Gaetani, Marco.,Flamant, Cyrille.,Bastin, Sophie.,Janicot, Serge.,Lavaysse, Christophe.,...&Bony, Sandrine.(2017).West African monsoon dynamics and precipitation: the competition between global SST warming and CO2 increase in CMIP5 idealized simulations.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Gaetani, Marco,et al."West African monsoon dynamics and precipitation: the competition between global SST warming and CO2 increase in CMIP5 idealized simulations".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
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