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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3963-8 |
Seasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon in CFSv2 | |
Krishnamurthy, V. | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51期号:4页码:1427-1448 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The predictions of the seasonal mean monsoon over South Asia by a coupled model are assessed by analyzing the retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System version 2 of the National Centers of Environmental Prediction for the period 1982-2009. The predictability is assessed by examining the June-September seasonal mean of the outgoing longwave radiation in forecasts from May initial conditions. Although the forecasts exhibit considerable interannual variability, the correlation with the observation is low. While the model is able to predict weak (strong) seasonal monsoon during certain El Nio (La Nia) years, with differences in magnitude, the predictions in the years of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are not so successful. The relative role of the Pacific and Indian oceans in determining the seasonal mean monsoon is analyzed by extracting the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode and IOD mode from the forecasts and observation. The model's ENSO mode captures the observed spatial structure whereas its IOD mode shows incorrect anomalies over India. The model is inadequate in predicting the relative strength and signs of the ENSO and IOD modes. The ocean-atmosphere interaction of the ENSO mode is better represented in the model by capturing the observed relation with the sea surface temperature (SST) and the low-level winds. In the model's IOD mode, the relation with the SST and the low-level winds is not correct over part of the Indian region while the anomalies over the Pacific Ocean also seem to influence, unlike in the observation. |
英文关键词 | South Asian monsoon CFSv2 Seasonal forecasts ENSO IOD |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439440200010 |
WOS关键词 | INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; GRIDDED RAINFALL DATA ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; PREDICTABILITY ; REGION ; OCEAN ; SIMULATION ; PATTERNS ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36082 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | George Mason Univ, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, MS 6C5,Res Hall,4400 Univ Dr, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Krishnamurthy, V.. Seasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon in CFSv2[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51(4):1427-1448. |
APA | Krishnamurthy, V..(2018).Seasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon in CFSv2.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51(4),1427-1448. |
MLA | Krishnamurthy, V.."Seasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon in CFSv2".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51.4(2018):1427-1448. |
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