资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

A systematic comparison of El Nino Southern Oscillation reconstructions during the early to mid-nineteenth century is presented using a range of proxy and documentary sources. Reconstructions of the boreal winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) using data from ships' logbooks presented in a companion paper are evaluated and compared to previous ENSO reconstructions. Comparisons between ENSO reconstructions and the instrumental SOI during a period of overlap (1876-1977) are made. These same proxy and documentary reconstructions are then compared to the logbook-based reconstructions, over 1815-1854. The logbook-based reconstructions compare best with a recent multi-proxy reconstruction that used signals taken from different teleconnection regions, and they have an improved agreement with multi-proxy records compared to a previous attempt to reconstruct the SOI from ships' logbook data. The logbook-based and the multi-proxy reconstructions are found to capture El Nino events better than La Nina events, and East Pacific El Nino events better than Central Pacific El Nino events, thus suggesting a degree of bias in the historical reconstructions. These findings have important implications for future ENSO reconstructions, with a need for an increased understanding of the effects of different ENSO flavours for future reconstructions.